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  1. M

    Core inflation running in the US at 2,3% - 2 yr yields at 0.679% - Who is nuts in this game?

    Well, firstly, you don't discount at govt bond-derived rates. Like I mentioned, a rate at which German/Swiss govt can borrow won't apply to a regular mkt participant. Secondly, yes, if you were to find sufficiently long-dated options where their mkt value would be computed using a negative...
  2. M

    BREXIT

    OKI, let's agree to disagree, conduit... I think on might be right that maybe we should use a different venue for this discussion.
  3. M

    BREXIT

    Yes, so it's just a matter of having a European subsidiary. That's the point. Everyone will still be able to operate mostly out of London, if you have a token subsidiary somewhere in Europe. Hmmm, you got it backwards. The UK is all about group play and compromise, quite heavily, definitely...
  4. M

    BREXIT

    Please can you tell this to 50 year gilts? They've rallied nearly 50bps in a straight line and are breaking all records. It's making me very angry.
  5. M

    BREXIT

    You could argue that Tom Hayes was quite involved in the submissions process. Hence, he's now enjoying a lengthy spell in Nottingham prison.
  6. M

    BREXIT

    Paris? Come on! Firstly, La Defense is a terrible place. Secondly, do you really think that any "normal" investment bank can run a serious business, with thousands of people, given the Phrench employment laws? Frankfurt, in that regard, is even worse, in some ways.
  7. M

    BREXIT

    This is correct... Apart from the more subtle benefits which Scotland receives (i.e. it provides lots of public services to the rest of the U.K.), it's a net recipient of subsidies and transfers. So is Northern Ireland.
  8. M

    BREXIT

    CME
  9. M

    This Hedge Fund Wants to Use Atomic Clocks to Beat High-Speed Traders

    There's quite a few discussions of all these topics on NucPhy.
  10. M

    BREXIT

    Whatever... I don't concern myself with trivial details like this. It will all be taken care of and served to me in the manner to which I am accustomed.
  11. M

    BREXIT

    Me? Spreading caviar? How very dare you?! I have a trained English butler (and other servants) to do that for me, obviously! :)
  12. M

    TLT--the long ride might be over

    I am never sure of anything... My arithmetic as follows, so you can check: - assuming same CTD, 1 5/8 Apr23s, yields 1% at delivery, I get a fwd px of 103.972714 - using conversion factor of 0.7674, I get a futures px of smth like 135.6 or roughly 135-20 This also is in line w/a...
  13. M

    Core inflation running in the US at 2,3% - 2 yr yields at 0.679% - Who is nuts in this game?

    Well, you can, sorta, but, firstly, you won't be able to do that for 50 years. Secondly, whichever way you end up doing it as an individual in the mkt, you'll be posting margin. The best thing you can do is borrow, assuming the rate isn't too high.
  14. M

    TLT--the long ride might be over

    Indeedy
  15. M

    TLT--the long ride might be over

    ..., buy bonds.
  16. M

    TLT--the long ride might be over

    Seasonals are very supportive, historically, going into July/August.
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