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No. The efficient market theory says everything is priced in. I do not believe that theory has any validity. We are already witnessing asset inflation in many parts of the world and even here at home. Does anyone believe that the free market price of housing in the US would be at these...

Stop looking at the problem in a one dimensional way ... "I need 6%". What you need is to fund your retirement and that may mean different things in different years. Since you want a rate in excess of the "risk free" return the market currently offers (of course we would all doubt the words...

Citi is not required to do anything.

If Chanos is as well informed as I believe he is they are not homes. They are vacant apartments where there is no group earning enough to rent them at a price that supports the debt service. I agree that the government can do a lot to delay the day of reckoning and even influence who must...

I really was trying to express how foolish i felt making the Short X call. For me, the less validation I need from others, the happier I am in life. I'm not trying to suggest I uniquely do not need it or that I am superior to others who may need more. Rather than talk about "people who make...

Chanos -- serious guy with a strong opinion: http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10960

I believe it is safe to assume that they reached -- foolishly reached -- for more yield. No one can possibly overlook the difference between a six month T-Bill and instruments that mature in 30+ years. It is my belief that the introducing broker is irrelevant -- of no more significance than...

The charts are already blown up. Check Al Brooks website. I don't have a link handy but easy to find.

Boys and girls if you read this and take it to heart you get to take the quiz. Upon passing the quiz you will get a diploma certifying that you have a degree in basic counter part risk. This is knowledge worth having. I have one additional question that I hope Old Trader will be clear on...

I would like to add only one thought to NoDoji's fine post. Plenty of successful people have had a failure or two along the way. Picking yourself up off the ground is never easy but it ain't the end of the world!

I think part of how many of the firms ended up with so much on their books -- certainly in Merrill's case -- was that the buyers were disappearing yet the deals were still done

A guest on CNBC commented yesterday that "these deals were created to be shorted". Past a certain point in this cycle there was more money to be made if you manufactured pools with some tranches that were not just toxic but super-toxic. The very existence of these poisonous obligations...

Sierra Charts gets you six months of one minute futures data (20 minute delayed) on hundreds of contracts for $22 a month -- package 2. Fewer contracts and of less backfill available on a tick basis. One nice thing about SC is that you can set up two feeds. One from their Historic Service...

No Heat ... I assume you mean longer term charts rather than short term. I hope you can give me a sense of your thinking -- time, tick, volume or range magnitude. Thanks...

Thanks for the definitive answer.

FlipFlopper has it right but I would also add that if you need the recognition that you get from doing things that do not add even one single dime to your bottom line ... well, that's a problem.

That said ... lol ... here is my first and, I hope for my own sanity, my last. Short X

But the man owned the Cubs. He was right to be afraid.

I assume you are a success as a part time trader and that success has been measured for its consistency, draw downs etc. If you have done the numbers and feel comfortable that you have done them in an honest and objective fashion, have evaluated your capital against those figures, then you have...

By the standard this a-hole sets no one would ever take the risk associated with doing anything that calls for talent as well as perseverance. Fully 98% of actors never have a year where they make $25,000 acting. Very few painters can pay their rent from sold work. Yet Picasso and Brando did...