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Well, I am beaten up, as well. I do acknowledge, however, that my model is unable to deal with this type of market.

Does this mean you are still long from last Friday?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion In your first use case of risk/reward ratio = 1/1 and profitable trades = 55%, the optimal bet size would be 10% of your account value. In your second use case, you need to specify the odds on the winning bet.

Yeah, what else is new? Your "FV" has been 200 points above the market price since the birth of Christ.

Nice call, looks right on target.

Source: http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/29SNAPcurrPP.htm The participation in the food stamp program in Alabama doubled in just one month (May of 2011). This looks like a reporting error to me. If not, there is indeed something major going on in Alabama.

I would add the number of trades to this equation: e = sqrt(trades) * m / s since (s / sqrt(trades)) is known as the "standard error", the original equation can be rewritten as: e = m / standardError This may also be recognized by some as Van Tharp's "System Quality Number".

The bull market ended 4 years go, in 2007, when the S&P was in the 1500-1600 range.

Hmm.

When was the last time the FV was below the market price? Seems to me your model has a permanent long bias.

What I was trying to tell you is that you should not have a profit target in the first place. More precisely, the position should be closed when the market changes in such a manner that your system interprets as no longer advantageous to hold the current position. The current equity in the trade...

I am willing to give you a quantum leap in terms of your progress. Instead of explicitly setting the profit target, let the market tell you when to take the profit and exit. In other words, when you enter a position, your profit target should be the moon (or whatever the opposite of it in case...

Hmm.

Doesn't matter to me either way, real account or a simulated one. No one is going to learn much anyway. This is like watching a zombie movie, or hearing a story of someone encountering a real zombie -- it's good for entertainment, but you are not going to become a good zombie fighter after...

I'd say the next stop is 1265.

It's really much simpler and mundane than what it appears as it's written. Consider random time series: x1, x2, x3, x4, ... x(n) You can't predict x(n+1) better than using a coin toss. However, the sign of x(n+1) - x(n) can be predicted with 75% accuracy. It's simply a game of...

Dude, I make over $100k per day, and that's just trading one ES contract. How's that for motivation?

Make sure that the "trigger orders outside of normal hours" flag is on.

The predictions were fine, it's just the damn "parameter" is inverted. :D

About 8% chance, according to my calculations.