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Alright, price can really only do 6 things: - HH - HL - LL - LH - DT - DB Now a bottom is always going to be a low, and by definition it's not going to be a higher low, so that means a bottom is always going to be a LL or a DB. So you see people say things like a W is a bottom...

Bollinger bands are supposed to lag. You want to see the standard deviation area of the last tick? It would be equal to zero.

Do any of these systems refund your money (or at least your fees) if they aren't profitable?

5/6/2013: USLV: $59.20 ------------ $59.20

5/6/2013: First half Second half First half trades: -1 +0.50 +0.75 +0.75 +0.75 -1 +1 -1 +0.50 +0.75 Second half trades: +0.75 +0 +1 +0.75 -1 Total: 3.50 Assume 1 tick commission per trade (overestimate): 15 ticks = 3.75 points Net: -0.25 A more realistic ES...

Of course I wouldn't care about trendlines if I could predict accurately without them.

I use limit orders and wait for the price to come to me. My targets are far away so transaction costs are negligible. I use Scottrade so I pay about $7.00 per side. Great questions. I have written extensively about how I trade in the journal forum here as well as a recent thread on...

I like that last paragraph. It reminds me of the concept that getting a raise is equivalent to reducing your expenses. People always want a raise but a lot of people don't realize that they can have the same bottom line by reducing some of their expenses without getting a raise as they would...

If you want to tell me how to draw them correctly that would be cool. I also have a 500 volume chart but I thought the trendlines were working better on the 60 minute chart.

Yeah. I don't know ahead of time which ones are going to be useful or not, but once they seem like they aren't working I stop extending them. Price has bounced off that one 4 times!

So you are saying not just when the bands are getting tighter, but when the top one is actually going down and the bottom one is actually going up (since technically they can both be going up or down and the distance between them decreasing), right?

Silver:

May 1, 2013: First half Second half

How does one compute that?

Yes, I've had a few journal threads over the years, all of which have been profitable. Here's the most recent one but its progress has been slow because QLD hasn't been moving much in the last few months. I just closed that position out today. I cannot predict price despite trying...

I am manually backtesting the last week using a 4 tick stop and not averaging down at all. Target is the closest tick on the opposite side of the MA. No reentering until price has crossed the MA. Here are the first two days. This takes a while so I'll put the other ones up later...

Out at $67.00. edit - typo. $66.97 after commissions. Net QLD profit: $2,732. USLV position still open.

Exiting QLD with a market order.

Well, I am predicting that price will continue to be random!

I'm thinking about selling QLD today. Will post here and Twitter before I do anything.