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HFStartup and retaildaytrader are the same poster, playing a game on ET by responding to himself, and sometimes making identical posts, as shown below.

No medical expenses in retirement?

You've been known to have used about a dozen of aliases in the past. Why don't you report yourself to the moderators?

Indeed. Just because the ES contract is $12.5/tick and the YM contract is $5/tick does not mean that the ES is 2.5 times more "expensive". Perhaps what the OP meant to ask was "which contract has the lowest margin requirement?".

Queen Elizabeth 2? Everquest 2? Emotional quotient at age 2? They don't matter that much.

I looked at the Globex holiday schedule, and couldn't figure out if it's going to be regular hours or early close for the ES on Monday, October 11. Can someone clarify? Thanks. http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar/files/2010-columbus-day.pdf

I have no opinion. You shouldn't have it, either.

I don't understand what you are doing. Here is your original Signal #8: Now, for the same signal #8, you are saying: And in between these two updates, there is no indication from you that either a target or a stop have been hit. The way I am reading it is that you are doubling the size...

Yes, that's the explanation. The key is not to think of 75,000 contracts as percent of daily volume, but as percent of the total liquidity available during a particular period of time, such as the period of 20 minutes or so during which these contracts have been sold. See the details here...

What in particular do you find humorous about it? Waddell put 75,000 ES contracts for sale, which are worth approximately $4.5 billion. That's more than the gross domestic product of many countries. I am not surprised that it would cause a shock and disrupt the market.

Which is the most realistic answer of the following: For a 50k account, the monthly loss would be

I'd argue the opposite. The "smooth lines" indicate a bias, not a normality.

No, what I am referring to is people. 95% of them lose all the time, 5% of them win all the time.

ETers are universally known to exaggerate their gains by a multiple of 20, and to never have a single losing trade. The elite traders don't hang out in the ET forums, as they are too busy trading or relaxing. Once in a while, you do see them making a "bullish/bearish" opinion polls here in ET...

The term "consistently" refers to the variability of returns over time, and not to the time itself. The less variability, the better. How long before they put you on the Time cover magazine? About 10 years. Can be sooner if you pull 3% monthly, instead of 2% monthly.

It was not obvious to me, considering that almost 20% ETers think than they can double or more than double every month: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=207544 Even more revealing, less than 5% think it's realistic to lose any money at all. To the OP: if you make 2%...

Yeah? So, you can turn $50K into $205,000,000 in one year? And with that skill, you find the motivation to get out of bed to make 2500 posts here in ET?

Kelly's criterion formula takes the average win and average loss into consideration. They don't have to be equal.

My math tells me that the probability of 10 consecutive down days is 1 in 1024, or once about every 4.5 years. Nasdaq is about 40 years old, so I bet this had happened about 10 times.

My math is right, yours is wrong. Assuming 252 trading days in a year, you'd have a) assuming 1.79% daily return: 2800 * 1.0179^252 = 244820 b) assuming 8.92% daily return: 2800 * 1.0892^252 = 6,284,660,000,000