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For the last 30 days, it's 52% return on margin, according to my calculations: 2 long @ 1229.89 1 long @ 1288.60 Today's close: 1308.04 Points gained = 2 * (1308.04 - 1229.89) + 1 * (1308.04 - 1288.60) = 175.74 If the ES contracts were traded, this point gain translates into 175.74 *...

That may be, but your position is 150 S&P points under water. So, it's debatable in regards to who is dumb in this predicament. Ultimately, it doesn't matter whether it's the "dumb" or "smart" money that is driving the market. What matters is whether you can take what the market offers, day to...

The 3-year trend is up, the 12-year trend is down. So, whether we are in a bull market or a bear market depends on the time frame. It's very simple.

We have been in a bear market for the last 12 years. Lower highs, lower lows in waves.

The bull market ended 12 years ago.

If that does not qualify as the insider trading, I don't know what does. Criminal charges should follow.

Why are you short if your model predicts a move up? I am confused.

I don't follow. Do you set the year end target for the model, or the model forecasts the year end target?

Not sure where the 20% figure came from. OCGCX historical performance is: 1-Year: 1% 3-Year: 9% 5-Year: 3% 10-Year: 3% You'd be better off with an index fund.

I have no clue. But wherever it goes, I'll make money.

The "January Effect" is an overloaded term. It may refer to: A) the stock market performance in January predicts the performance for the entire year B) small cap stocks outperform large cap stocks in January Both premises are supported by historical evidence, although as we know, past...

I would add palaeoanthropology, palaetiology, pallasethesia, and parousiamania to the list.

There is more to it. Notice this: (SPX / FV) * (2.02 to the power of 5) = (1254.00 / 1088.24) * 33.6323 = 38.76 which happens to be exactly Kim Kardashian's hip size (in inches).

“ I hate quotations. Tell me what you know. ” — Ralph Waldo Emerson

Yes. Better algos. About 70%.

There is an assumption here is that to build a profitable strategy, one "must" start with a large number of trades and subsequently filter them. First, that's not how I build my systems. Second, in can be demonstrated that starting with a system that generates trades randomly gives better...

I've counted over 20 parameters in this strategy, which is way to many, in my opinion. In fact, I believe that any system which has more than 5 parameters is unmanageable. In regards to performance, from my real life trading experience, the spread/slippage/commission overhead on the ES is about...

No, it doesn't warn against anything. It simply caught up with the recent rally, so in effect, it predicts the past. You might as well replace all five of your indicators with a moving average (or with a Kalman filter, if you want to be fancy), and I bet you that you'd get the same results as...