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ECF, love these posts of yours that always provide interesting data to get one thinking! Did a quick search for commodies funds/ETFs and they have seemingly all been negative recently. Seems with inflation likely coming at some point now might be a good time to buy come commodities! Dont...

The tail risk thread got me thinking. Why are put options used to cover against a tail risk? Why not just selling futures? Futures just seem "cleaner" in that you are not out the option premium, which research seems to have shown buying puts over the long run is a relatively big loser. So...

Haha I had come across that very same article newwurldmn. I saw this quote: The Universa strategy has produced gains of 10 percent this year, slightly less than the stock market overall. It’s been up every year since 2008, according to the materials. I agree they cannot logically just be...

I don't think I'm on both sides ElectricSavant, not of the same stock/index anyways. I would be LONG, let's say some very low fee passively managed index funds, and SHORT some unrelated, high fees actively traded closed end funds. I would have buy orders and sell orders on each one, but I...

I dunno, IBs fees seem to be pretty darned cheap. Let's say I put $5,000 to buy every 5% drop, and sell $5000 worth after that every 5% rise. So make $250 per trade. I would guess IBs fees would be a small fraction of that.

Thanks Maverick! So, let's just look at some quick numbers. These are all just off the small yahoo finance charts, so they may be off a bit, but hopefully not too far off. SPY: 1/26/18 - 286.58 2/8/18 - 257.63 10.10% drop TAIL: 1/26/18 - 21.78 2/8/18 - 23.19 6.47% gain SPY...

Ah, I see Maverick. That makes sense. Thanks. Someone mentioned I think I publicly traded tail risk fund or ETF or ETN, not sure if it was on this thread or another, need to find that one and look at the returns on big down periods to see how much protection they seem to give per $ invested...

Let me ask this - do we know what % Universa was up in 2008?

Well now I really am confused. I re-watched the original Mark Spitznagel video. Universa. Looking at just that, seems at least that fund DOES include the long component and the tail-hedge component. I'll just have to study the numbers.

Ah, Mav, I indeed read all that, and it made perfect sense. I guess where maybe I was confused is my thinking that these tail-risk funds were meant for you to be able to put 100% (or some large portion) of your savings in, and protect you from the tail-risk. But what you are saying is the way...

“If you can stomach the negative carry, by all account go for it, but a low-vol fund doesn’t have that [cost of buying expiring options],” he says Mr Spitznagel says that investors should keep allocations to their funds as a small percentage of their overall portfolio, and another person...

Were you on here in 2008? Did you call it? Come to think of it, I wonder what most ETers were thinking in 2008. "Wow, 20% is a BIG pullback, let's go all in!"? :)

I remember reading in books when I was a kid stories where the NYSE at least I believe had people that served as "market makers". Their job was to kinda-sorta to keep the market orderly by making sure there was a bid and an ask. So they would maintain a portfolio of the particular stocks they...

Lol!

JSOP, do you not just do like monthlies, just look at expiration date, on that date, take the opening option prices?

JSOP, what is the top online broker or brokers in your opinion? I've been with IB for years, always loved their cheap trading commissions, at least compared with the brokers I used to use. Thanks!

Understood loud and clear beerntrading. Thanks.

Thanks SunTrader. Going to have to read up on EW so I can fully understand. Question - are the supply areas you noted with the black horizontal lines part of the theory, or you just came up with that on your own? If the latter, how did you determine them? Thanks!

Thanks o' lush one! So I would roll at 3:59 P.M. eastern time on the day before the expiration date, correct? Thanks!

I would guess they got over-levered, no?