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I read somewhere that China's tariffs will affect only a small fraction of what ours will. That they wanted to be seen as acting, but definitely did not want to be seen as escalating anything. Not sure whether that is right - but if it is its a far cry from all out trade war!

Isn't it because the futures "payout" one way or the other won't happen for some time, so the price of the "spot" moves different (generally faster) than the futures?

I second this question!

I keep thinking this. It just seems a little early to be heading for a bad bear market. I feel we are going to have one more market "happy time" before the real bear comes out. But me thinking that probably means we drop 20% over the next couple weeks. :)

Much appreciated Scataphoagos.

Thanks Tommy! On that last part, I've had an IB account for years, but never been a trader. I place orders in the markets from time to time, but its really an "investment" account. Thanks!

Bahaha awesome.

bitcoin seems nutty to me, but the way it performed on monday, actually rising, is weird and impressive.

That's a really good point vanzandt. I'm sure its common knowledge, but I never did really think about it. Is there a chart of like, let's say, all U.S. equities year over year going back a good ways? I wonder how it compares to the ones that selectively pick the winners.

Arbitrage? But wouldn't the algos and HFTing pick that sort of opportunity up and execute way faster than a human could? What are you arbitraging if I might ask DeltaRisk? Thanks!

Hope you are right SunTrader - I bought a little downside protection on the bigish pop today - a down day tomorrow would do me sweet. :)

There seem to be a lot of successful traders on here (and undoubtedly many unsuccessful ones). So, I'm just curious on how you guys think it is that you make money at it. Take computer trading. Make a few assumptions: 1. Computers can execute trades much faster than humans; and 2...

I've been watching the candlestick charts for SPY on my IB screen for several days now, generally at the one minute level. I've noticed a little pattern where you'll have a price going one way for several sticks, say up for example, then you will have like 3 wicks on the upside where it...

You guys seem to be talking about a "bear" market? What does that even mean??? Like, a temporary pullback?

Or really, just what do you see in the market. What kind of patterns have evolved. Going lower? Higher? Maybe one, then the other? What are you marvelous guys and gals thinking?

Interesting tradingjounals. How are you computing a 17% correction in line with current levels of VIX? VIX seems to be a bit above its historic norm, but not really that much. Being not that much its historic norms and predicting a 17% correction seems a bit strange, but I'm just trying to...

No good can come of this.

tomorton, thanks. I just plugged a 20 and 50 day EMA in the yahoo finance chart for SPY. These will be very rough numbers. But for the 2008ish bear market, it looks like SPY peaked in October 2007 around 154. It looks like the 20 day EMA went south of the 50 day EMA in October/November...

tomorton, so if price and ema 20 both close below the ema 50, you get out, then get back in when? when one or both of ema 20 or price close above the ema 50? Thanks!

Buy puts. LOTS of puts.