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I didn't calculate it like you think. But I played a different game than you want to play. I only needed an approximate future value to use for my option model. Say I saw the market was more or less pricing in volatility of 16 for all strikes in the front month. I then got my prices for all my...

Yes futures is better from regulation point of vieuw, because of volume (I always have the chart up). Then explain in detail (no general analogies) because you don't make yourself clear because I don't understand: why do you trade spot ? Don't tell me it's liquidity: for all normal purposes...

estimating theoretical price is a problem for everyone: no easy solutions to that one. If you can you can make a fortune. The middle part of your post I don't understand, sorry but the language barier seems to be too big here. As far as I can tell, you think what I told is an extreme situation...

Like I said you can guestemate the future vol. What's even more you can make money trading options if the markets are liquid and you have a big part of the flow without knowing future vol. When I was arbing options I knew more or less wat the vol at that moment was in the market: for example...

I've been following this thead up and off somewhere a distant, allthough I find it very interesting. I myself mainly daytrade fx (for a great thread about this: see the journal intraday fx player ) and have some long term plays stocks. But might go diversify into this direction. Is there...

if you want to get really deep into options you should read this http://www.amazon.co.uk/Taleb-Risk-Dynamic-Nassim-Nicholas/dp/0471152803/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1215585097&sr=8-3 but first read something easier like this...

left out a part: 'most market makers derived vol by feel when I was trading at the option exchange'. Future vol that is ...

How can they be quite different: they are exactly the same, the only difference is one has an intrestrate differential added to them for the time period they trade. Read up on the way the pricing of futures is formed, it's quite easy. From a more practical point of view less theoretical point...

Pure nonsense, spot is the same as futures: they can be arbed quite easily. However if you want to trade spot you have to go with an ECN-model based broker. Like that you are guaranteed fair prices. I myself use IB because I like the tight spreads and the platform.

no, no, no ! you measure implied volatility by putting all the variables in an option model. The one thing you don't have is implied vol and that will come out of the model. Don't listen to the other asshole babling about the future vol. most market makers derived vol by feel, by supply and...

this is just part of the answer, the basic thing is what the other guy is saying. considering your charts, I don't read russian and don't know what they are showing: could be anything. If it is implied vol: that's possible, it can change rather quickly in turbulant market, like today. Please...

covered my short at 72 :D join me in chat CF, if you please

MTE knows what he is talking about, as far as I can tell from his other posts he is a practicing trader in options. I have been previously a market maker in options and have done arbitrage in options for my own account for several years. This is the way you should do it.

shorted the pp too, but first got whipsawed big time three times :(

I would jump of a bridge if I only managed to make 10 pips a day. Read this, http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=122579 it's free and it's good. Take the first 240 pages, read them 4 to 5 times and check all the trades with a chart program like www.prorealtime.com and that's...

76 looks like the level to be watching on the hourly

started the day better off than yesterday, sold at 18 and bought them back at the pp 97. Will, I'm not going to say that I would prefer Asian lesbians for life, but might give it a try once in a while, maybe in trio :D

The way I see it now: Eur/Usd is my main trading vehicle and my main focus should remain there. Ym is just something that doens't need a lot of focus the way I trade this now (easily defined setups with easily defined stops) and is added on the side to make some additional income and a way of...

yes, you are at least partly right :D but you know it's my curse :D following those other markets and only trading key-reversals there doens't take much attention and it added something to my bottomline ... BTW: weren't you the one advising me to find some other markets to trade in the evening...

Read all of the above two three times carefully, MTE and I are using different words but we are basically saying the same thing here.