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If you're trading the hourly, you don't have a retracement yet.

Selection bias.

And here's another (quit at 1100). Winrate: 67% (BEs not counted) P:L: 4:1

If you say it will, then it will. :) Seriously, though, as the ES got well past its halfway level, it may drag the NQ up if they couple. If they decouple, who knows. However, as the ES represents 500 stocks and the NQ only 100, the ES carries more weight. Ultimately, it depends largely on how...

Here's another, also turned out to be a trend day. Winrate: 100% P:L: can't be calculated as there are no losses. This one includes a 5pt target for multiple contracts.

If you're a discretionary trader and you're following my approach, there are criteria for entry, both long and short. If these criteria are followed and a long or short trade doesn't work and this is followed by another on the opposite side that also doesn't work, then you are by the definition...

He did comment, but you're focused on your line and some indicator rather than what he said. There are several different manifestations of support and resistance. There is, for example, the "resistance" one finds in a parabolic rise, the point at which price can't go further and reverses. This...

A thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable trading plan IS the edge. Whether or not one shares it is irrelevant.

Keeper.

On the other hand, those who emphasize positive expectation to the exclusion of all else ignore the psychological ramifications of that focus, ignoring as well the fact that the individual who seems to have been the first to apply Expectancy Theory to trading failed as a trader. There is for...

On the other hand, one could argue that the plan is the edge if the plan is based on market structure. (You needn't make a separate post for each sentence)

Any chance you could contribute a bit more than "you can go broke doing that"?

As trading is behavior, the question becomes whether or not one can determine the probability of a behavior or set of behaviors occurring again. If one could not, the advertising industry would collapse, and capitalism would struggle to survive. The principles of successful stock speculation...

Seems the subject of "winrate" is in the air once again, which generally coincides with a dawning wonderment that perhaps one could do better if one had a trading plan. I don't bother calculating this any more. What's the point? But the subject of winrate has come up with regard to the SLA...

1. The "idea" of averaging down sounds great. In the book. But, if you're going to do it, you better be in the immediate family of the CFO. Otherwise, as Peter Lynch said, "Spend at least as much time researching a stock as you would choosing a refrigerator." As to the win rate, there needn't...

By the way, as long as we're on the subject of other instruments, I should point out to those who are new to this that any auction market will be governed by the balance between demand and supply. However . . . If the market is not mean-reverting, the moves will likely be so erratic and...

This is a good example of the choices that are available to the trader depending on his objectives and goals. If, for example, the primary demand line is the line in the sand, there's no particularly good reason to fool with any of the rest, which is the chief reason why I encourage those who...

'Mission Accomplished' Was 12 Years Ago Today. What's Been The Cost Since Then?

I'm consolidating the "oil" charts I've posted since February here as they serve to illustrate the proposition that the SLA applies to any instrument in an auction market, i.e., subject to the Law of Supply and Demand. This applies to stocks, commodities, bonds, and consequently anything based...

Yes, it is part of the learning process, something which those who ridicule the journalists who are going the process clearly do not understand. But as to these consolidations, determining when a break is meaningful and when it's no more than a rest stop is relatively simple to do: just keep a...