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  1. bone

    CL Spreads

    Side Note: Both the WTI and Brent contract delivery points are quite modest and physically limited - in terms of fungibility, there is no way the open interest could come close to accomodating physical delivery beyond a minute fraction of the daily open interest. That isn't really all that...
  2. bone

    CL Spreads

    IV, the forward curve pricing implications as it relates to the energy markets is far more complex than simply calculating delivery, basis, and carry differentials. It is not unusual for the electricity and hydrocarbon forward curves to price beyond the carry and basis costs. The...
  3. bone

    Futures curve based alpha strategy

    Intermarket commodity spreads generate pure portable alpha. That is exactly what they are talking about. You are generating returns completely independent from flat price directional risk. If a strategy can generate returns independent from equity market and fixed income market flat price...
  4. bone

    Spammer

    I'm not sure if this is authorized or unauthorized spam - or if it is even spam. Looks kinda strange coming from a moderator, not sure if this would have implications as someone acting in what could be termed or interpreted as an official capacity for the Elite Trader Company - selling a...
  5. bone

    Geneva Trading LLC Information Require!

    I have met the cheiftains in the Chicago office, I know very little about the Irish operation. The Chicago prop business model has changed dramatically and downscaled - looks nothing like the business did a few years ago. Since the fully-backed prop futures business model requires that the...
  6. bone

    Margin Cost, USL ETF using Margin vs CL futures

    One of the common complaints I see is people complaining that the CL future made an X % move, and the ETF made a < X % move in the same timeframe. The common perception is that the slippage management to maintain the ETF basket is a point of concern.
  7. bone

    This time it's different..

    NoDoji: you are just brilliant. Trading off of pure price action and shelving your unvalidated opinion is not only superior strategy, it is actually very liberating and over the course of events it will save your emotional resources. Why? Unvalidated opinions require alot of emotional...
  8. bone

    Margin Cost, USL ETF using Margin vs CL futures

    Go to the Nymex website, Crude Oil future, then select the performance bond margin link to Friday's updated excel sheet. Find out from your stock broker what margin you will have to post to carry the ETF. Go to both instrument's contract specifications in order to convert the physical to...
  9. bone

    futures secured account and bankrupt risk

    Swan, it would be a first in the United States. Has not happened to date. For that matter, you should also concede that one could conceivably get screwed over if they hold a regulated insurance policy of any kind. If you need to deal in absolutes, trading is not the business for you.
  10. bone

    Margin Cost, USL ETF using Margin vs CL futures

    Margin aside there is considerable roll/maintenance/construction slippage in many ETF Commodity Funds, lots of supporting evidence and articles floating around on the topic.
  11. bone

    This time it's different..

    Let me be very clear - I am not making market calls. I am building an indictment of the naivety and total lack of supporting technical price action presented by the OP's in most of these 'grand market top or bottom' timing threads started here on ET. It is my sincere hope that if someone...
  12. bone

    Stop loss % for novice trader?

    At the time we enter a trade, we also enter a stop/loss level and a profit target for that position - in essence, three orders get entered to open a trade. The profit and stop/loss levels are dictated by the volatility and previous price action levels of the traded instrument - so we have a...
  13. bone

    Trailing stop

    We use them all the time where profit targets get taken out and the longer term metrics are still a "go" on our trading model. The old stop/loss level gets cancelled and then bumped up to the recently exceeded profit target. Just a systematic way of letting a winner run. Is not applied to...
  14. bone

    Scalping Calendar spreads ?

    DD2, I am personally very active in the back months for most of the serial (12 month) intracommodity spreads like STIRS, Softs, and Energy. But I am trading Flys and Condors and intercommodity relative value spread positions with holding periods of days (and longer) in order to capture...
  15. bone

    This time it's different..

    Everything known by the universe about a regulated, universally-disseminated commodity or instrument is reflected in the last price print. If you just go along with the market you can make a very good living in this business. The fact that you are convinced that you are right, and...
  16. bone

    futures secured account and bankrupt risk

    "I do not think a single penny has ever been lost by a US citizen client of a regulated US FCM. But that is irrelevant. " It's entirely relevant. Insurance companies, who do go broke from time to time, and who issue "insurance" policies to individuals and corporations in exchange for...
  17. bone

    Scalping Calendar spreads ?

    You can't scalp those back months like that, because those are markets being quoted (almost always by automation) based off the front month. You will not even be able to get filled in the back month and then work the front month as a legged spread. That "scalp" fill in the back will be you...
  18. bone

    Why the ratio for 2/10 curve trade is 3:1 on the CME website rather than >4:1?

    Eurex and CBOT publish the current CTD's on their website, in addition to OffTR issue conversion factors.
  19. bone

    The S&P has topped !

    Absolutely NO technical reason based upon price action to be calling for tops.
  20. bone

    Why the ratio for 2/10 curve trade is 3:1 on the CME website rather than >4:1?

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/yield-center.html http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/calculating-us-treasury-futures-conversion-factors.html http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/a-simple-treasury-duration-adjustment.html...
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