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Actually yesterday's close or today's open would have been a very low risk entry point for a short...

I also like directional calendars and butterflies. Calendars are preferred due to their lower commissions. Options are great. You have total control over your max risk and you can cherry pick the highest reward/risk trades to put the odds in your favor.

Oh, ya know. This and that. :D

It's not only a horrible idea on the face of it, but it represents a very dangerous slippery slope. Just look at the history of income taxation in the US: It was microscopic when it started and now look where we are. Once it's in place, no matter how small it starts, it will never go away and...

You'll see guys like this all the time. They can't make money trading but they are able to make money selling systems and signals, mostly to noobs.

Besides, why would anyone want to log off ET anyway?

For insights into how OP manages these trades, check the first few pages of the "conservative option trades" thread. Based on Probability 101 calculations, clearly the probability is way more than 50% (a coin toss).

That won't work. You're essentially putting on a put calendar spread and a call calendar spread. Both spreads have the same risk profile so the total risk is simply the sum of the 2 nearly identical risk profiles. You're still counting on the underlying to not moving very far from when you...

Nowhere does that chip indicate long or short so I'm not sure where y'all are seeing spreads of any sort.

As rmorse pointed out, the volume of the underlying is important. For options strategies I only trade against underlyings with at least 1M average daily volume. FIZZ is only 58K...

There are some very reliable techniques using options to protect whole portfolios.

High probability strategies appear "better" because they satisfy "the need to be right." The other side of the "high probability" coin is "low reward, high risk"; one is an inevitable consequence of the other. The analogy that sums it up best is "eats like a bird but shits like an elephant." :D...

Filling at the mid in general is very optimistic, also fills greatly depends on how liquid the market is. I've found more realistically you can get filled 1/3 of the way between the bid/ask, though I usually try for the mid first in case I get lucky.

MDs and lawyers aren't smart enough to trade successfully anyway. Don't confuse the ability to memorize a lot of stuff in expensive schools with analytical skills.

I'd be looking for the max profit area to be where I think price might go within the time until expiration. Try not to get hung up on static rules about strike placement.

I've looked at 1-3-2 BWBs but never traded them. Supposedly 1-3-2 is better closer to expiry but I find plenty of opportunity with 1-2-1.

Well as one of "they", I get it. :p I was just trying to answer OP's question directly without judging.

rmorse is right if you're entering these trades as a straight profit trade. I could see entering a trade like this on an index to hedge a long portfolio. If the market moves up it doesn't cost you anything. If the market moves down you make money to offset your portfolio losses (if properly...

I've done them some myself. I suggest: Buy a further OTM put (3rd leg) to reduce your margin requirement (like a BWB). Don't go for the biggest credit you can get; this increases your risk if the market moves down too quickly. Aim for making the profit area as wide as possible with a small...

You can get IV and SV info at ivolatility.com with a free registration. Your broker would have it too. I wouldn't say IV is "distorted". SV looks back in time and IV is the market's prediction of future volatility. The market is right in this prediction a surprising amount of the time.