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Wow -- this was really insightful. Glad you got through that period. I have come across others who have no awareness that their OCD is preventing them from making any progress -- they keep going round and round in circles and unwilling to consider that they might be on the wrong track -- or...

Remote: Going back to your original post, the evidence that you set forth is a sign of excessive speculation -- I agree with that. I just think there is no evidence of a top yet.

Both! LOL! My view now -- after trading through multiple market conditions -- is that there are always "markers" before a market tops out in a major way (meaning end to the bull). While there is a lot of speculation, I'm having trouble finding anything that is causing me concern in the...

Can you elaborate?

I agree with most of what you said but there are ways to have get a pretty good idea of what's going on. It took me a long time to figure out what matters and what doesn't. And like I said, I had to step away from my trading indicators and come out with a framework that takes into account the...

I think a lot of people have a negativity bias so they are always looking for the top. The bear case is always rational, the bull case often isn't. The best thing I did was put together a framework that allows me to objectively evaluate market conditions. This is very different from the...

Wasn't 2003 a market bottom and a rally that lasted 4 years?

The top isn't in yet from what I can tell. It took me a long time to figure out how to determine whether the market is risky or not and so for a long time I was always worried about getting caught on the wrong side. Right now, I can't find any reason to fear the market. That doesn't mean it's...

What you did well each day; What needs improvement; How you will implement that improvement in the future.

Hey -- I'm human. I'm far from perfect. I make mistakes. I'm may not exercise the right level of discipline. I don't always trade what I see or fully trust my indicators but it's not all hindsight. The reality is people view the market through their beliefs. If you believe in the...

To Niner / Farmer, etc. What tayte said. I could post my primary big picture indicator that went into sell mode on 1/31/2020, went into buy mode on 5/1/2020 and hasn't triggered a sell since but maybe it was just lucky. I have a faster, more reactive version of the same indicator that went...

"Be curious, not judgmental" - Walt Whitman

Boom! Uninformed, unmotivated or so biased in their thinking that because they can't figure it out, there can't be a way.

FarmerJohn keeps saying that no indicator could predict Covid. I agree with that statement BUT he's making the assumption that no indicator could have predicted the Covid sell-off. That is not true. We knew about Covid at least by January 2020. I know because I went to the Bahamas over the...

People believe in "black swans" like the Covid-related sell-off of March 2020 because they don't believe that there are clues to potential market direction and risks. I'm not even sure 9/11 was a black swan event because if you were reading the market correctly, the trend / momentum was...

The market was showing signs of technical weakness despite the S&P 500 making a new high in late Feb (the virus was known then and people like Raoul Pal had warned in February that most folks were underestimating the potential impact) before the market actually turned down. The market just...

It wasn't a black swan. Some folks were warning about it in January 2020 and technically there were a number of warning signs that showed up in February 2020 that something wasn't right with the market.

:banghead:

I will daytrade any of the indexes / sectors I mentioned if I see the right set-ups, usually a 4-hour / 1-hour indicator combo or support / resistance levels. For instance, just got a buy set-up on the 4-hour (9:00 a.m. EST bar) for gold (GC) and then hourly confirmed at 11:00 bar. This was...

What time frame charts you use for your daytrading?