Search results

Wish you the best in the new year. Congrats for staying true to your methods. They obvious deliver greater returns when the market is more stable or uptrending and volatility is low.

What kind of strategy? Fade-Exuberance strategy. One of four principal ones: * Buy Credible Strength * Sell Exuberance * Sell Credible Weakness * Buy Panic The devil is always in the details though.

The extreme market insanity in September and October definitely helped the account to a new level where it was possible to take risk with enough buffer (above starting capital). Of course I keep discovering new things and refining the strategies every day as I learn new things. Yes, I hope...

Weekly Update for week 49 ended 12/19/2008 Good week, up 70K (16%). Looks like a jinx for me on Mondays, always starting out on losses. Must be the eagerness to start making money after the week-end. Lost 17K total, shorting BIDU, longing SPY and a couple other trades. Made some...

2 losing months out of 12 years (144 months), leave profitable months at 98.6%, not 95%

For options I prefer to know my maximum risk beforehand. That is determined by the premium I pay for the calls or puts, so basically I only go long, never short. See the answer below I took time to analyse my trades till date (1/14/2008 - 12/12/2008), and these are the statistics...

I shall take time to compute all the statistics, and respond to the issues, but attached here is the list of returns of all trades taken this year (since 1/13/2008 when this thread started), split between options and stocks. options are long calls and long puts, and stocks are long or short. For...

This just reminds me of an expected growth in equity I drew up long ago (when still unprofitable!). The expected annual return is dependent on capital under management. Here is something similar to what I drew up. At the end it should be asymptotic to expected natural growth in world asset...

Based on current balance, I should be mopping up 150K in two week's time.

I use a limit order somewhere between the bid and ask. Example, if is is bid 11.60 ask 12.30, I may place the bid order at 12.00. I could still pay for slippage, but normally not as much as the quoted spread. I would normally go for the strike out of the money but nearest the money.

Weekly Update for week 48 ended 12/12/2008 An OK week, up 18K (4.2%). Very few trades (13), but still plenty of action. Fell into a big hole on Monday, shorting the SPY soon after the open (10000 @ 90.37). Shorted CME as well 2000 @ 210, another 2000 @ 220). Closed SPY @ 91.8, losing 14K...

Of course it always feels bad to lose. There are lessons learnt or re-learnt from almost any loss, but generally a big loss means next time I am going to be careful and play more according to plan, and as long as I do that I think the account growth takes care of itself.

Here are all the trades for Wed (6/6), RIMM being two of them. None made it to the top/bottom trades list: TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE SPY 2008-12-03-15-45-54 2008-12-03-15-55-21 10000 867764 876300 8511 LONG SPY...

Weekly Update for week 47 ended 12/05/2008 Good week, up 42K (11%). Plenty of action, pleased it all turned out OK. On Monday, went contrarian soon after the market opened down, lost 13K, and turned round by 10:10am and hit the SPY with 200 put contracts (szcxg), realising 26K. Ended the...

Yes, what I mean is that using 20:1 leverage on say one stcok, means you will be wiped out with just a 5% adverse move. As for splitting it into multiple positions, I said my method calls for just a few ideas a day, so I cannot make use of all that buying power.

Each time I hear the word blow-up, my heart paces, and I go thru my trades trying to pick out what could cause it. I do accept my leverage would lead to significant draw-downs (in the last two-years I have had maximum 50% draw-down, part of which is out-of-character behaviour), but we need to...

Give us your one pick that will double next week, and let's sit by and watch your clairvoyance at work!

Weekly Update for week 46 ended 11/28/2008 Awful week, down 59K (13%), about the same percentage the market (SPY) rose. Tells the story of the week. Found it hard to adjust to the unrelenting strength in the market. Bias is such a terrible thing to cure! Need to be careful as we go into...

Hi Short&Naked, What is your definition of gambling? It is silly how people could criticize without bringing facts to back up their position. This week's top trade on SPY was roughly 300% of account value (16000 shares). That is about the maximum leverage used on a trade since the thread...

Weekly Update for week 45 ended 11/21/2008 Good week, up 51K (12.8%). Got a mighty lift on Friday's rally to avoid an otherwise mediocre week. Shorted 5000 SPY @ 77.45 soon after the open, fading the early advance. Covered @ 76.18 for a gain of 6.2K. Came back in the afternoon, seeing the...