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I knew you were reading--A person like you cannot stay away from this thread. :) As for what the model says, I do not click on links.

Was at the thread 'Son of..." few moments ago. I wanted to know why the QQQ was behaving the way it was. I found out that people at that thread were bullish. That explained it. It is now at 86.40. Why are they buying it? So I add this:

qqq at 86.40 is in my view a short. 86.40 is where it is now.

I was looking at QQQ, and was asking why would it not fall? I then came here, and found out that indeed there are people who were long today.

From your article: "That suggests there will be virtually no surplus crude in the market in 2014 should OPEC keep output at November's rate. " The article went from OPEC irrelevant to OPEC will determine whether there is a surplus or not. Is the world then dependent or not dependent on OPEC?

Notice "taking their toll". It sounds the article may be politically motivated. The man in this forum is planning to buy, and they say "taking their toll". It is absurd.

"The report kept unchanged forecasts which point to a smaller share of the world oil market for OPEC in 2014 due to increasing supply from the United States, in the midst of a shale energy boom, and other non-OPEC countries." Notice "which point to". "point to" is not a fact, only hot air so...

So your argument then is further proof that the world still depends on the middle east on energy, and the world is not flush in natural gas and oil. You must be political savvy. Why there has been talk in recent times that the world has become independent of middle east energy? If it is true...

SPY at 181.05. Model xx signal: short add of 1/4 size.

I knew that all the talk about the world is flush with natural gas, and the US has entered independence from middle east energy, was just bull crap talk. If it were true, prices won't rise. So what happened to that talk?

SPY at 181.42. Model xx signal: second 1/16 short size.

The upside estimate is below 183.50, but the downside estimate is NOT above 174. It could go to 165.

SPY at 181.44. Model xx signals a short size 1/16. Next shorting level 182.10.

Maybe another question one would ask: At -33% mark, how much would the broker ask in cash , or how much would the broker's robots sell to answer the margin call?

Maybe this could be handy: 33%=[1.33]-1=[1/(0.75)]-1=[1/(1-maintenance)]-1 One of the next questions is: why did the broker choose the 33% mark, but not another number?

Do you mean "25K left in cash" instead of "50k left in cash"?

Assume there is an estimation with 95% confidence that an index would trade in a range below 183.50 (on the upside), and down to 174 on the downside within the next 3 months. The index is currently at 181. How would one trade such index under the hypothesis the estimation is accurate?

+2

You do not need any paper to discuss the issue. Here is a simple logic. You, I, anyone else as well as things or living organisms, originate from earth from a matter point of view. Something that is internal to earth cannot change earth. Only external factors can change earth. If external...

1. Your above post is then in agreement with my post on stats. 2. With respect to the text quoted below, there is another way. The models/tools should be tested against the market trend. In such case, the random walk is not only neutral, but is playing against the tools. That is why I have...