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Actually the problem might be that the world now needs a BORROWER of last resort, because the world may be working on paying down the debt and/or increasing savings, and therefore if no/enough borrowing takes place, the GDP would head down. Therefore, the world will be "begging" the US to...

Because one can then realize that an inflation protected bond beats the stock market if dividend is lower than the bond yield???? Does anyone have that chart please?

I thought about this a bit more. Imagine every one in the economy that should borrow is not borrowing even at zero interest rate, because their current balance cheat is such that their liabilities are higher than their assets, and their current task is to produce cash flow to pay down debt, and...

Great observation, and is in line with my personal intuition. Thanks for letting us know. You have been very generous. What if we use your observation to make some money? If you have the chart please post it so that we can see if we can build a strategy to milk it. Do we not only need something...

It depends on how you look at the Poll. Suppose you want to assess ET's opinion (which is larger in size than the readers of this thread). Then what determines the margin of error of your poll is the ratio of responds to the total population on ET, in addition to the size of respondents . So the...

The above definition of bear markets is flawed-- it should be normalized. NOTE: I renew my call to readers of Shortie's threads to vote immediately. Help our friend shortie so he can help us. Please vote now. Do not delay it. a minimum of 100 voters are needed for this to be meaningful.

I have studied the exact problem you are dealing with, and I have devised solutions to the problem. There is one piece of information you did not provide and which determines which solution is "best". The missing information: from your experience what is the percentage of trades that reach a 2...

I think it is a good observation. I was in fact looking for a chart that depicts the yields of stocks and bonds over time. Does anyone have a URL/pic/chart? The difference can also be due to perception that the earnings have been on cost cutting and numbers work while the 10-year is real. In...

If the market trades higher on Monday would this be a trustworthy bull leg? My problem is that I see a limit on the upside to 117.5, and I keep asking myself how would the market deal with it if 117/5 is indeed a cap on the upside. That is 7% for the rest of the year. :confused:

Do I understand the implication of it correctly: go long the continuation, and get out if there is a change (and do not guess, etc). First leads to the profits, the second leads to costs.

Why not the Fed?

He said "there is nothing to look at" while it was has been addressed centuries ago . Actually it is not true. He just does not know about what was written about that problem, probably because his knowledge is limited to what he received in an economics/business school. The root problem is that...

A central bank is a lender of last resort. In a deflation, one needs a borrower of last resort as well, and a lender of last resort. Who would be the borrower of last resort: The Fed or the government?

I find it a nice name for a cat. Who is Curly Washburn?

Examples, illustrations, details? Thanks.

What is the One Thing That Changed Everything In Your Trading? It is actually the things that changed everything in your trading. I am posing it that way so that you select only the best things, with a focus on the one thing that led to the "HaHa moment". The one thing could be an insight, an...

I think that the cost of stop loss orders are not as well understood as option prices. I did once a little mathematical model. I noticed that the average cost of the stop loss order would not behave like the price of an option in a number of ways. For instance, with regard to the location of the...

I was thinking OTM options. You are correct for the ITMs.

The market is probably one of the rare places where a man has more chances to start big and end smaller, and a low chance to start small and get bigger. I think fortunate are amateurs that start small and get bigger, with a focus on consistency.

Could we keep the thread focus on the topic? I noticed that the experienced and successful people are posting less after some recent altercations between some posters.