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Log Chart of Dow TOTAL RETURN (dividends reinvested) priced in Gold ounces. How come the gold bugs never consider dividends? Is it because Gold doesn't pay any? :confused:

Funny we only hear about upside "expert" targets for Gold but where's the stop loss? Reminds me of the Dow 40,000 book from 1999. "Buy and hold forever". Oh wait, I forgot: No stop needed as Gold can't possibly ever go down. The new risk free asset :cool:

I'm 115% long, 90% short, 25% net long across all accounts. 2% GC gold futures, 0.5% gold stocks. Gold is a trading vehicle like dozens of others, nothing else. Gold isn't a guaranteed insurance against anything, specifically not against inflation. Neither is it perfectly negatively...

How much of your net worth is allocated to gold?

The inflation bulls fail to see that the CRB spot measured in gold ounces has been steadily descending over the last 10 years, in a waterwall like fashion. If Gold was predicting hyperinflation, then why are commodities not equally participating? In 1998 the CRB basket of commodities cost 1.0...

I am not a discretionary trader, so it's hard to classify any of my positions as representing a macro opinion. Still like reading your journal though. All of my trading is purely mechanical, and currently around 25% is allocated to my future trendfollowing system. I trade basically all the...

I am also in awe about the UST, especially today. All headlines read "on higher inflation expectations" yet the 10y is yielding 3.25%, up a full THREE basis points. Of course, the inflation mongers tell us treasuries will implode as soon as the Fed "stops buying all the supply". But what if...

Acapulco cliff dive in the US Dollar Index? :cool:

Yes, the big "decoupling" headfake :cool:

See all this has very little to do with "The USD is not retaining value", this is about expansion of government and its consequences and solutions. Putting those budget numbers into perspective using historically correct comparisons would have made this point much clearer. In fact, this is...

Why don't you tell us first what YOU ARE saying. That's the big mystery. I have no idea what you're trying to say with these numbers. I'm saying that nominal comparisons over a 100 year period are an INSULT to anyone's intelligence. The author should have had the decency (or brains?) to do...

Comparing absolute numbers (rather than relative measures) over a 100 year time frame... Wow. The relative measures will still tell the same story but will look MUCH less dramatic to the layman. Oh you got this form a gold bug website. Can't say I'm shocked.

None of these half-religious half-logical reasons on why gold is "a store of value for the longterm" and a "must have investment for any serious investor" will me keep from shorting it should it exhibit strong weakness. As usual, I will likely get squeezed another dozen of times before I...

1,000 banks disappeared 1988-1992 and the SP500 gained 60%.

I couldn't think of a better broker than IB. Heck if they only added the London Metal Exchange but they probably have their reasons. If you don't like TWS either find a substitute (there are multiple front-ends that connect to IB) or find another broker. If you don't like it now chances are...

As I said above, for my routing it appeared as if Level3 broke down -- a major backbone provider. If a major global network issue turns out to be the culprit then there's nothing that IB could do.

I couldn't think of a more reliable platform than TWS & IB.

Excellent debate on the topic here http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/daniel-amerman-vs-mish-reflections-on.html 45+ minute audio: http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2009/Shedlock.html

True, but that could be 20 years away. Don't say that's impossible, Japan is an example.

Let's check definitions first? 1. Inflation/Deflation as in MONEY SUPPLY + NET CREDIT GROWTH? or 2. Increase or Decrease of consumer prices (e.g. as measured by BLS CPI) In the case of 1. I expect SIDEWAYS grinding over the next 5 years. Falling credit offsetting growth in money supply...