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I was in his thread, and they were long Nasdaq100 at 3400. I opined that it was heading to 3300. It did it in that nasty one day sell off. I can repost what I posted there. He knows the story of the parabola/quadratic, and saw the right side of it on that day. Do not get me wrong: I like both...

You are very bad at assumptions with me. I do not know why you do not seem to understand that there are people who understand what you think they do not. Winner great than (PercentLoss)*StopLoss/(PercentWin). Now let pull numbers from the imaginary world: Example: 0.6 * 1/0.40 = 1.5...

So my conclusion for myself is: the top is in!

A possible little typo which I do not think would change the conclusion: 31,5 millions should be 35 million? Pointing it out just to keep track of numbers and so that SLE could see that there are actually people who read his posts! If it is not a typo, then I would have removed a typo from my...

Could someone update the PnL on the position (call + hedge (/w initial hedge value to do less work))?

If V=Var(A)=Var(B), Var (a/2+b/2)= V/2 +1/2Cov(A,B). Cov(A,B) could be a great friend. If there is a large number of vehicles with capital split equally among them and with equal variance, the variance tends towards the average correlation coefficient times the original variance (and not...

And when he does what your post say he should do, he will hold to his winners long and finally realize he is now an investor! He then quits trading and does investing which ultimately leads him to buying an index. All this time to understand and accept the meaning of holding long to a long index.

So it is now about who loses less. The guy who does not trade will win doing nothing. The answer will hopefully not be: start your thread.

Let us assume you have a positive expected value on past trades. What do you do with these problems: the variance, the drawdown, the probability that the expected value can become negative with you not knowing it yet, and the probability that your drawdown (in absolute dollars) hits the size of...

Did you ever ponder why there are queues at an airport, at a bank, etc?

Since you seem to watch/trade new highs, I have this question. From October 9 to October 20, did you observe many of them and they were more successful than not? In latest move is the number less compared to October 9 to 20 if you were to count outside of S&P?

When was the last top of IWM? October 29?

I understand from your original post , that it does not make a difference whether one trade one or multiple strategies. So I asked you what about the variance?

I believe they can make price fluctuate.

Turkey season is around the corner. People would start to think about it in few days from today. What are the chances of a sell off vs. another bull leg during the turkey season? Is it true that ATM IV on SPY for december is in the 10 range? Who would run: the turkey, the bull or the bear?

The post does not include the effects of variance and covariance (of the parts) on the variance of the whole.

Let us assume there is a edge. In any market there are three types of players: the winners on the long side, the winners on the short side, and the rest (the market fuel). Having the edge means one would need to be among the winners, among whom there is an elite: those who never see a draw...

I want to add that Oddtrader started an excellent thread! Thank you.

What is the answer to your question pfranz? I am positive you are smarter than 80% of the fund managers.

Let's give an analogy. Imagine a class trying to define a parabola and a dramabola (dramabola does not exist). So the class says, to find a parabola and a dramabola, let us look at what is not a dramabola and what is not a parabola. So they go over the list: triangles, circles and etc. Then they...