Search results

LOL! I assume you would not have mind it at all if the kid were to have shown up to have a drink. One of the interesting things in the story is that he chose the size. He hanged himself. It was a fair trade.

Great story Jeff! It shows how life is in there. You are an excellent story teller. Did you write or plan to write a book about your experience in that pit? I think people who read it. Very captivating. I read it 4 times already! This post should be nominated the post of the Year!

3M times around 2.4 to 4 cents. 100k?

What you could do is make mathematical what your brain sees. Then you would have to work less, and your knowledge would be used by others. Essentially, the maths would replace the processing units in the heads of your friends with the processing unit that is in your head. Do you still trade...

If he works with his assumptions, how could he understand the wisdom in your post and the posts of others?

I am very impressed by your thread, your patience and the uniqueness of your method. If I could ask, what methods do you use to search for such spreads? How do you calculate the expected values and how do you get the probs? If you have an example that goes over the steps of the numbers it would...

I have a feeling that you may have had extensive experience outside the market such as in business/investing. You know the saying that common sense is not common.

I also have a very good impression of him. He strikes me as a sharp, wise, well read, and experienced person (and helpful/gentleman too).

I read someone stating that synthetics make him avoid the lockups/downs things. I assume you know about synthetic (a fancy word for: Long Fut/Stock = Long Call + Short Put.)

I believe it could happen if there is deflation or inflation, as long as the economic is ok. In case of deflation, the cash flow discounting leads to a high PE (because of low interest rates), and the stocks receive further gains from rise in the dollar. The difficult part is: an economy that...

Policies have consequences which can be investing in risky securities, just like when there was the real estate rise (it was a rational consequence of the decision taken back then). As for the unemployment why not save the money, and direct it to the creation of actual businesses. Here is an...

What about someone who goes long a stock that goes to zero overnight, and short a stock that goes to "infinity" over night? Or just 100% and 50% changes with 20:1 leverage? I think your spreads prevent it from happening, but not everyone is as wise/thoughtful as you. So the concept of...

Low rates yes, but not a lot of inflation. The US has had it just right since 2011- I would say perfect with the exception of rent. So it makes sense the market bottomed in 2011, after 6 years of bad times.

In inflation and rising economy (in paper terms, not necessarily in nominal terms), landlord is king. Think of it as dividend stock owner: if stock rises, and dividend rises, he wins even if gold were to rise. He still gains even if gold is the unit of measurement and gold were to rise, because...

Wage setters benefit from the profit margins, so it does not matter to them whether it is inflation or deflation. Analyze the problem from the rent setters perspective and landowners perspective. How could they accept deflation? Rent is the fundamental (and maybe only) reason why there has...

Deflation should actually be the natural result of a good economy with high productivity and economies of scale. Examples of good deflation: price of computers, price of cells phones and telecom. You get more for less. Here is why deflation is not liked by some: because landlords rent...

It depends on stop point, Reward/Loss ratio, volty, and your confidence intervals.

Post a chart, show to people where you think the explanation is wrong, and let them explain.

1. The answer depends on the meaning of terms/framework one seeks/conceives of. 2. This might be a shock to some but I believe what is deterministic in the behavior of the stock returns would be "wiped out" in the option prices because its variance is zero.

Trading or investing?