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Good! How long do you plan to stay long? I am selling calls. We are at retest of morning high. I believe we are done or that today's top is not far from current levels. Closure of today's gap by sometime next week.

The solution I had in mind when answering Ninna's post is actually different. I am wondering what would be a method that maximizes the edge? The method shown above gives an edge, but it does not discuss whether it is the maximum edge. My method (if it works) might give the maximum edge, or at...

Could you elaborate a bit more?

1. I would put the range 112 to 114. Early sellers would be felt/tested at around 110.50. 2. I believe this the best opportunity for bulls to break the 114, and retest the April high. If they fail, things can get ugly. 3. Straddle sellers have been collecting 2 to 3 percent a week, which...

Qs now at 45.00. HOD is 45.14. Bulls got one cent upside.

It is also a money burning machine--- if you look at the other side... or if the other side comes to you. I would be prudent.

qqqq at 45.13. I leave the remaining upside to the bullish guys.

What do you think of this theory: players in a place call market flip coins, and the non-players watch the game. If paths drift to the downside, negativity sets in and humans talk about negative and even gloomy things. If paths drift up, people feel good, spend more (which helps the economy...

Here a way to think about it. Since we know the range of the numbers (1 to 100), if you were to know the first number, the probability to decide on the second card does not have to be 50-50. To see it, consider the case of picking as a first number in the first card, number 100. The chance of...

It does not. The two problems are different. The coin flipping has no terminal conditions where you can work backward to decide on a strategy.

If you mean by the original poster myself, could please you indicate where you asked me to give an answer. If you asked a question, I must have missed reading it? Please clarify. Thanks.

I read your post before my above answer. You deserve credit for introducing the problem!:) Also thanks to Walter and others who discussed it. All you guys are an outstanding group of people. Keep it coming! I have some ideas and follow up questions related to this, but I want to let...

Ninna: Both your posts and the posts by Walter are excellent. It would be a waste of talent if both of you enter in some sort of arguments. I suggest that you post the solution at some point. I did not want to post it because you deserve posting it as you introduced the problem, and it is a very...

Walter: I believe that if you do a search on what is known as the Secretary Problem, you would be able to find the information related to the point of the problem posed. Regards

I see your point. I understood it in the sense that the two numbers are randomly generated between 1 and 100 ( uniform distribution). I believe that his point is possibly that the conditional distribution of the second number as it relates to his payoff maximization will change depending on the...

Walter: I think it is what he meant. You choose two numbers that you put in two envelops for instance, s/he opens one of the two envelops, and s/he decides whether that number is the largest of the two, or the number in the other envelop is the largest. S/he can have a positive expectancy...

If you have access to a random generator, I see how you can have a positive expectancy. The key is that you see one of the numbers and that you have access to a random generator. Do I get it right? I did not want spell out the method to allow others the opportunity to first think about it. :)...

I did a study of coin flipping from the perspective of trading. The aim was to gain some (new/alternative/existing) understanding of trading via an analysis of coin flipping. I am wondering whether others in here have gained similar insights and lessons that they learned from thinking and...

In AH QQQQs, sept03- strike 44 call and sept18- strike 45 calls were trading at 0.32, and 0.33. A spread would cost 0.01 time premium/one dollar per contract. Expiration of the sept03 calls is this friday. Could you discuss the risks of this trade? The worst case I see is if on this friday...

That is actually a valid point, and option instructors usually use that argument when confronted with the negative sum challenge. Assuming that the insiders use the hedging to make market and make a profit (which I think they do because they are still in business), I think individual...