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Hey readers. I just wrote an article on how to compute probs of worries, scares, and blowing up. The title is: "Silent Fears in the Hearts of Option Credit Spread Writers ..". http://stockmarketoptions.blogspot.com/2010/10/delta-and-fear-in-hearts-of-credit.html

Those who trade pairs,and portfolio use them because close/open is done simultaneously and at one price. So no timing and liquidity problems to get out (or in if overnight).

MOC= Market On Close? (type of order?).

Either way you think of it would be fine, but you seem to have two different prices for the same thing: "buy at $2.80 and take away the sell of + $2.45 leaves - .35 cents" If the $2.80 a $2.80 or a $4.80 (as stated earlier)? The two numbers seem to be off by $2. It is the only post I...

I am loaded, so did not have time to come around here. Tomorrow is non farm payroll numbers, which is a marketsw mover. Markets seem to be creating a range wide enough to strike in either direction. Do you consider such reports in your spread writing? EUR/USD has touched the round number of...

FV: I think the move is due to EUR/USD. It went down last evening, and then in early hours of today during the night, it went the other way. Probably due to stops being triggers. This market seems to be mirroring the dollar, which has lost around 10% of its value in about a month. Now...

Intradaybill: I think you are knowledgeable, and I agree with what your wrote. I think I read a post where you may have wrote something like you are a hair dresser. If you are a meaning it in literal sense, that I think you are able to do more things than just hair dressing. If you however mean...

Where is the analysis of impact of drawdowns, variance reduction (central limit theorem), and probability of ruin? Analysis of average , and variables in it, is not enough and is actually a relatively trivial exercise.

You need to take into account other variables, and do an analysis of your method. The steps involved, how to do them, and why to do them, are described at: http://stockmarketoptions.blogspot.com/2010/10/analysis-of-trading-systems-outcomes.html

FV: I am waiting to see if there will be a selloff or a head fake in EUR/USD. Projected time for either one is by 3PM. What do you think of EUR/USD if you follow it? If a head fake, sellers seem to be waiting at 1.3750. These are motivated sellers (because they lost last night). Most likely...

Sorry I did not double check the links. Here the link to calculator: http://stockmarketoptions.blogspot.com/2010/10/stock-options-calculators.html If you look to the right side of the page, there is an archive of all posts---Useful in case your lose links. It calculates the worth of an...

FV: I made a post in blog. It contains a link to the option calculator. I will add more links to other calculators. http://stockmarketoptions.blogspot.com/2010/10/stock-market-and-currency-markets-some.html If you have links to other calculators, please share. I will add them there. FV...

Excellent post! There is a case you may want to be aware of. There was a guy who lost his whole account, and even more due to one little "mistake". He had option positions (spreads with limited risk), and other non option positions in the same account. The market moved fast, and he had a...

I have been exchanging with two individuals who are learning options trading on another options thread. I thought to suggest this thread so that those who are new to options trading can learn it. I think a person who is new to options can start by: Opening a paper demo account, find an option...

Your learning experience made me think about whether I should consider making a site where subscribers would enroll in a course on options. I do not want people to get mad at me, so if I do it, I am thinking to do it as pay what you can. If a subscriber thinks he should not pay, or does not...

FV: Do not rely on closing prices. It is usually the last trade on the option, which is not corresponding to the same value of OEX. There is also the bid/ask spread. So the point is: look at real time market, not at closing prices In addition: did you consider reversing your ideas...

:-). It is not dental surgery. It is just easy stuff that you will get used to over time. The issue is to make a profit. The names are less important. Did you receive my email? I have sent two emails (one today and one yesterday). By the way, with regard to intellectual rights/patent...

Falconview: I knew he would ask for both. This Stanford fellow is very smart. Probably the smartest dentist in the world--- over the whole century. Now that he asked me to think a lot and for two problems, I should think about what to ask him. I have something in mind, but if I say it he...

But should I look at them from the perspective of call/put spread trader, or from the perspective of a condor trader. In case you are thinking why should this distinction matter in the first place (since a condor is just two spreads (one put and one call spread)), you now know that I think it...

:) . No I am not, but a number of people asked if I were a diplomat, was one, or whether I plan to be one. Since you asked in that manner, I am wondering whether you felt that I may have implied something in my note. If so, your note would then be a diplomatic way to signal something to me...