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Current economic data (including financial data) are very much relevant to providing barometric *indicators* on the overall economy -- whether that data is leading (like, housing permits, rig counts) or lagging (new home sales, NGstorage).

If you have an iron condor (no matter long or short), you have four strikes -- 2+2 vertical spreads of equal width -- on in puts, and one in calls, one being bullish, the other bearish. You have not given enough facts, nor identified whether you're long or short... you're quoting 312.50...

An academic environment provides not only disciplined study and rigorous evaluation, but a safe environment in which to do so. The dirt-under-the-nails of market experience can be acquired in a summer's internship. Want proof? Size up the income of a trader with a bachelors and 4 years of...

Your post (between the question and the premise-ladden suffix) is self-contradicting.

if you put a moving average on the number of tweets, they will go from essentially zero through Nov. 2016, to something rather large. If you put a moving average on the returns, they head downward *perhaps* through Nov 2016, but rather plainly over the last 2+ years. (to my jaded eyes.)...

I'm sensing an inverse correlation to the number of Presidential tweets. :cool:

Brought a smile to my face with "Searching for Bobby Fischer..." -- what an amazing movie/cast/script -- even to James Horner with the soundtrack, fercripsake. I want to see it again. [And Joan Allen: what a MILF.] Was never particularly good at chess -- never really played. Did a "surge"...

Meh. Shoulda stayed with the ±20pts forecast. We flopped around til 10am, and with Consumer Confidence (a lackluster market mover on most occasions) popping to "102.__" we zipped up +30 to 2885. We soon camped out at +20 between Euro-close and 3pm ("Chiiiiii-nahhhh"), when we dropped to camp...

With news in (til 10am, at least), and we're flat to yesterday's open: ±20 pts all day, 40pts actual range, centered on where we are now. A 1-minute ATR of 1pt. A great day to tick-scalp. The last 15 minutes will again give direction to the Sunday open. [edit...] Screw it. ±15pts around the...

Of that first set, I see an obvious link between the right-hand bars for 1-2-3, 4-5-6, and 7-8-9 -- but that's all I see. Nothing jumps at at me for which I might infer any link to the left-hand side -- whether the dark blue line, the light blue line, or their difference. :( As far as the...

You're over-thinking it, FeChief. A tailored, general(-ized) AutoRegressive ("on traded prices) model better represents the look-ahead fear/confidence of the market (and thus, direction) than the defined Historic Volatility (±1σ of price), but not quite so well as the market's OWN look-ahead...

Yeah, it's going to be skinny. You're paying ~90¢ for it, at best, before commissions. If it exceeds $31, or descends below $28.50, one or the other position has earned $1.00. (And again, before commissions.) You need to plot everything from $28.00 to $31.50, both puts, both calls, then the...

((I gotta write this shit down!)) :wtf:

But that's not how China sees it... What I think is hilarious is how chip makers (who happen to have Huawei as a customer) are getting nailed this morning. Down 5%-8%! WTH?!? Do the sellers think that equipment purchases won't get made?? Whether the name is Huawei or Cisco, stuff is needed...

I did. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-s-p-500-will-top-soon-at-2925-2930.331727/page-21#post-4857338 But then, that was a sucker's bet, and was filled in an hour. It had all sorts of reasons "why" -- not least of which was because it was short-term. And did you watch the market...

Seriously?!? "Good call"??? After watching the global trade picture get perforated with a self-inflicted wound, :wtf: after some mighty Blue Chips turn in half-hearted performance, :confused: after missing industrial production expectation by 0.50% just this morning.... :vomit: We're STILL...

First, you need to understand that the 'statistical significance' you're seeking stems from a paradigm that assumes each 'trial' [moment in the market from which to snatch a trade] is independent from the prior trials, and of course unrelated to the future trials, right? Except, a problem: the...

What you describe is a 'thin market' and is repeated over and over, whether for equities, options, tomatoes, or used parts prices for antique cars. Doesn't matter: the crunch of many-buyers and many-sellers squeezes the bid and the offer together. In a thin market, there is no squeeze: bid and...

Any auto-regressive process is just doing on a monotonic basis what our eye does instinctively: it interpolates from what has happened to extrapolate onto future points. We do the same thing when we hear a headline and then look at price/volume action, and think, "Gee! That's sure an...

Two things stand in the way: 1) "...for the benefit of,_______" and 2) IB is a DMA The first item requires any transaction to be clean and differentiable, so the taxing authorities (anywhere on the globe) can reach in and grab their take. The second item means that any "trade" goes to market...