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Quite possibly your best post in this thread. (:wtf:"That was a knock, wasn't it." Yes. Yes it was. But demonstrably true.:rolleyes:)

No, and very wrong-headed. When you find yourself in a hole, the first step on solving your predicament is to stop digging. Same with drowning, falling through weak ice, driving in bad conditions: if you spaz, you bring yourself ruin. Wisdom says, "don't do that." :thumbsup:

Well, when you're right, you're right. And you're right. :thumbsup: ("Wait! Wasn't that his argument??" :confused::()

There are two very standard ways to estimate an underlying's price movement from current market info: • from option prices, given the current prices of ATM strangles, and • from current IV, and going ±1σ. Both of these have implicit assumptions about time and volatility that manifest in their...

And then! The reading list to give ulcers to the xenophobes: :wtf: https://www.google.com/search?q=gdp+from+illegal+aliens+undocumented+labor

And with all due respect to you, bone -- The base count you cite is history and is explicitly *hated* by The Stable Genius. As for "nationalist trends?" It is you who conflate that crowd action as a bandwagon on which we should hop. That is no basis for matters of state. Again, NEVER in history...

(My opinion...) You're spot on with your paranoia, and spot on with your doubt. Your system has LOTS of years of use to go -- the primary bottleneck in 2019 is not CPU, but GPU, which you have covered. Power supply? A quick couple of clicks off eBay and you're all set. To address your...

You're a smart guy. I don't know if you have *ever* posted something market-wise or trading-wise with which I have had an issue. But the most *complex* of trading/investments is still simple enough to be coded. International Relations (no matter how realpolitik it may be when up close) is not...

"Ooo-oo! Ooo-oooo!" You could set up a spectrum/buckets arrangement just like I have above, set the conditions for "with-in X-days of end-of-month" and THEN[!!!] you could take THAT subset and test for seasonality!! Is it month related? End-of-year? Quarterly??? Woot! :D

The solution is long-lensed, involved, filled with subtleties and nuance, based strategic thinking, clothed in solid principles. The solution is Statecraft. Who's going to man the border defenses you envision? YOUR sons and daughters? Do they lose an arm or leg in the process? Who's going to...

Russell Rhoads stands way above the crowd, by simply following fundamentals. Way big :thumbsup::thumbsup:

From this post and others, it's plain you don't get it. :( The way to cure termites in the back bedroom is not to close the door. :confused:

What you are arguing is reality -- don't try to shave it too close. If you were over-committing $10,000 of capital or moderately committing $100,000, the ratio remains delivered returns over variability of returns. As long as the pool of funds from which you measure *returns* remains consistent...

His point is that China is running a word-association test. So when someone says, "OPEC." The response should be "Honda." :wtf: (OPEC used to be A Thing. Then they spanked the U.S. too much, and we took our Average Fleet Fuel Economy mpg from 8 to 21 -- in effect telling OPEC, "Don't need it...

Hey, it's cheaper for them to burn high-sulfur, LOW-heat Wyoming coal -- it's essentially slate soaked in kerosene, and burns *horribly*. So, it's not a far stretch for the U.S. to export the nasty processing of rare earths, and have it pay dollar-wise, too.

Well, I eschew MicroBloat products where I can, so OpenOffice/LibréOffice. But, same difference: a standard spreadsheet. BTW, I just checked the conditional filter in the column G, and indeed, it's just =IF(AA25=5,F25,"") -- so, "If Friday, print."

...as well it should. :rolleyes::cool:

In a post above, I warned about discounting the difference between the underlying economy and non-market (read: "Tweet") geo-political effects. I stand by that. Still, there's no getting around that we're threatening 2750 in the S&P -- a goodly 200pts down from the peak, and a mere 100pts from...

"SO negatively"?? No way -- China revaluing the yuan (2015) was out-of-the-blue. Brexit (2016) was out-of-the-blue. Between China and now Mexico -- while things might be deemed to expecting *compounding* of effects -- nope! We're 30 minutes from the open, and down by 1%. VIX? I'd be shocked if...

Whatever you're smoking, ease up.