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  1. tommcginnis

    Re: This time it's different

    DEFINITELY a "Top 10 ET post" for 2019. Everyone should read this. Twice, even. Hand it to your kids. Print it out and post it in the gym. And always have a stop. READ THIS. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/this-time-its-different.pdf
  2. tommcginnis

    Where does using delta as a proxy for %ITM come from?

    I have benefited so much, from videos from (from East-to-West) Harvard, MIT, Yale, Michigan, Stanford, Berkeley, San Diego, .... One of my absolute favs is this one, from MIT: ENJOY!
  3. tommcginnis

    Identifying a reversal (trend change)

    :confused: Errrrrrr, there are always a matching number of buyers and sellers. Every second of every day. And for everything sold in any market. Anything labeled as otherwise is thereby suspect, and undertaking an affirmative duty to explain its abuse of language. (e.g., "Online Trading Acad. &...
  4. tommcginnis

    modeling the vol surface when missing (quite a bit of) data

    Close: I was using OpenOffice. :rolleyes: I didn't know!! I have been encouraged to change over to LibreOffice, and am in the process of doing so -- but some *deep* operations have been screwed, and the only way to get these subtleties to work again is to essentially re-invent them :banghead: --...
  5. tommcginnis

    Mature industry leaders...Poor quarter. Bad fundamentals or deferred maintenance??

    You are grossly over-applying "monopoly" -- conflating it with "good leadership". Warren prefers companies with "good moats" that they maintain well -- whether technological, superior service, or overall brand: your product is established, and competitors are easy to spot. KO is one -- a...
  6. tommcginnis

    Swing Trade Entries

    There are plenty of ways to trade profitably on EOD data, but they are very boring for someone trying to work a second career after the markets have closed, and needing to feel like his fingerprints are on the pie he's baking. If you can filter out anything that requires intraday...
  7. tommcginnis

    Shorting index with DITM options?

    No. When you buy DITM, you are paying intrinsic and extrinsic value. The whole time you're holding, that extrinsic value is decaying away, so you need to be right on direction *and* right on timing -- put differently, many people have seen their delta growth met-or-exceeded by their theta decay...
  8. tommcginnis

    What's more likely to be dead - CPU or motherboard?

    See Bob? The other side of the coin: I had a computer built around 2003 with all the latest/greatest. Sped up the CPU and memory for $50 (delivered!) in 2011; bought 3 more years' service. Currently "driving" The Great White Horse (so named because of its enormous case) which is now about...
  9. tommcginnis

    Which trading strategy would you prefer?

    One of the first principles to learn in trading (and in life) is that of expectancy: probability + earnings. You are only looking at half the ingredients. Go back to the OP's drawing board, and realize that both are posted, and allow you to compute expected returns.
  10. tommcginnis

    Opening auctions

    42. 42 and 3.141598 and 1.96. (On weekends, 2.7182, roughly.)
  11. tommcginnis

    The Holy Grail

    That's that whole sciencey thing: he recognizes that something works, AND recognizes that he does not know *why* -- and it bothers him. So he (they) test, retest, check the tests, refine the methods, work on it on Sundays and to midnight night-after-night, exploring, pushing, posing why why why...
  12. tommcginnis

    SPX Liquidity

    This will be entirely dependent on specific strikes. Remember that there are multiple SPX strikes between SPY 280.00 and SPY 280.50 (etc etc, dependent on expiry and distance from market). Bring up the data and make your own eyeball judgment. One immediate suggestion is to download the...
  13. tommcginnis

    Can you tell where the market is going by looking at the buy and sell orders?

    Can you specify what you mean? I use 1min/4hr; 1hr/7day; 1day/6mon candles, usually. And a small-but-important mix of T/A.
  14. tommcginnis

    The S&P 500 will top soon at 2925-2930

    My instinct tells me that we're a hair above a cusp, so we're pretty much in-the-middle, but unstable. But my T/A (which continues to do better than my instinct) sez, with a green day tomorrow, "Buy!" That's not helpful, I know. (On the one hand, this -- on the other hand, that! "Bring me a...
  15. tommcginnis

    Deep ITM Calls

    I think if you Google something like "How the CBOE comes to set strikes" or similar, you'll get a whole lot more up-to-date than my little brain, but the CBOE will create an eligible strike-to-trade upon request of any "qualified" party, with a note from Mom. And so you'll see gaps in weird...
  16. tommcginnis

    Deep ITM Calls

    "Bingo!" As Step&Fetchit noted, if you look at weeklys versus monthlies, you'll see quite a difference. For that matter, if you look at a monthly (or quarterly!) a year out, you'll see only major strikes are offered. As time goes on, maybe the underlying climbs or falls, and the market desires...
  17. tommcginnis

    Won't mechanical system stop working?

    Size Size Size. If you've got something going, and you can work it without issue, try to size it up to a point where you figure you could *not* do it without brutalizing Bid/Ask/Spreads. I sincerely doubt you'll pass $10,000,000. The 100s of PhDs you're referring to are trying to work...
  18. tommcginnis

    Can you tell where the market is going by looking at the buy and sell orders?

    In any mass of players like that, market movement depends on the net -- the summed effect of all. That mix of players changes with every tick, and thus the net effect is subject to change with every tick. The closest we can get to market *direction* is to assess how much the pattern in front of...
  19. tommcginnis

    Tail risk as a trading edge

    I'm going to reiterate my vote that the fund *looks*like* long-only in equities and then long-only in vol., but "could go very wrong" part -- I'm going to disagree with: we've had non-market shocks through the last few years, and the fund's path shows hit AND recovery -- it's not just long-only...
  20. tommcginnis

    Deep ITM Calls

    IB is a DMA -- look that up. Your order is treated just like Ray Dalio's or CalPers or Tim Cook's. (Same market, too.)
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