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  1. tommcginnis

    Trump Trade war is ruining American markets

    So, you lied. o_O Hey, no biggie. Righties have every right to shit upon the truth, too. I mean, it's not *my* deal, but if it works for you, then "Hey!" :rolleyes: But the vacuity required by your fallacious use of "activist leftism" means your closing statement (since *you* made it) gets...
  2. tommcginnis

    Is trading really hard work?

    That is STILL in my head. :confused:
  3. tommcginnis

    From Reagan to Trump: Here's how stocks performed under each president

    As used to be said, here's "...the rest of the story." https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/stock-market-performance-by-president Cute to work around a bit. VERY small sample, statistically. As well (as has been pointed out above), there is a lot of serial correlation/causation here -- the latest...
  4. tommcginnis

    First good experience with power outage in 16 years full time trading

    The brand matters a lot less than the age. They don't tell you that (which is a real mystery to me), but both the battery backup-edness AND the circuit protection have *very* limited lifespans, and should be replaced every few years (like, "5 years" max). Who knows where Li-ion batteries are...
  5. tommcginnis

    US-China Trade News... Jawbone Manipulation?

    "Hey! I got one!!" https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields "Does that work for ya?" ("You've got a mean streak, don't you." :sneaky:)
  6. tommcginnis

    Whither US Treasuries?

    This is highly suggestive of a recession on the horizon... (Though not, as has become popular, "in the next year". Note the mid-90s -- a very similar environment in many ways.) If you bought with a 2.6% yield? Yeahhhhh, it might be awhile. But too, these days? "We're one tweet away...
  7. tommcginnis

    When P-C parity does not hold

    Yes. Absolutely. I'd even go so far as to say, "Typical" of every major divot on the S&P over the last decade. "...Stop playing...?" That depends on what you do now, right? This all signals danger. Danger means risk. Along with risk *should*come* reward. Yep! But as an option *seller*, I'm...
  8. tommcginnis

    Is price action trading the most insightful(& most accurate)?

    If you KNEW that KO or GOOG or MMM equities were going to absolutely flat for the next 90 days, could you make money from that? Apparently, you can't right now. And that's okay! But when you answer "Yes! YES! Ohhhh YES!!!" :D:D That's a day when such a sideways trend will become "valid" in your...
  9. tommcginnis

    Trump Trade war is ruining American markets

    "...an activist Leftie." Source? I appreciate the rest of your post as factual and informative (and *important*), but this sticks out as an inappropriate ad hominem and (to be polite) "counter-factual." In the meantime, ag products do not have IP beyond the production space, so Trump's...
  10. tommcginnis

    Front end for IB

    TWS' BookTrader -- simultaneously includes a price ladder/price histogram for your trading convenience, along with OCO/SL&TP. :thumbsup: :D
  11. tommcginnis

    Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management

    I have been reading of some shady dealings with TradingSchools.org, too. Here's a good example -- two "complaints" cited by tradingschools.org -- both from RipOffReports -- BUT THAT'S IT. Hmmmmm. And when you go to read the complaints? Sorry, but Anton Kreil's version of things sounds a whole...
  12. tommcginnis

    Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management

    :wtf: No direct knowledge, just my reaction to the Anton Kreil name. I thought that BBC "documentary" {series??} was pretty cute, then heard all sorts of dubious follow-up, so.... :confused: I'd keep my eyes open.
  13. tommcginnis

    Trump's worst economic statements

    I have read on good authority that Trump is actually responsible for everything that has gone on in the markets for the past 11 years. Man! Talk about 'hiding your light under a bushel basket'!!! The guy should get out more -- find a platform and take some credit.
  14. tommcginnis

    Use of Naive Bayes to predict price direction in R

    As a "total jerk", you're a real piker, Noobs. A Noob to the tenth degree. ("Boy! You sure tol' him!" Yeah I did. Ye-ah. :cool:)
  15. tommcginnis

    Trump's worst economic statements

    Wouldn't this thread work better if it were *constrained* to some degree? Like, "This Week In Trump Dumps" or something? Otherwise...
  16. tommcginnis

    Use of Naive Bayes to predict price direction in R

    ...and how 'bout a "And Good on 'im!" :thumbsup::thumbsup: Jeez, guys -- how 'bout being happy for someone showing some umph? My "Current Projects" list is about 6 months olde. :(
  17. tommcginnis

    How do you know when successfully backtested strategy will succeed in real trading?

    A lot of good posts on this thread, so this thought stands on others' shoulders: On any given day, a strategy that has worked in the past still faces an uncertain future -- whether that past performance is in live trading or empirical back-testing, the strategy's ability to maintain "success"...
  18. tommcginnis

    Use of Naive Bayes to predict price direction in R

    ((Thanks for posting a GREAT thread. I am way bummed that I can't get into it *nearly* as much as I'd like. Nice looking stuff, though. I'll certainly follow this thread with interest.)) The "25-30+ years" thing is just nice in theory, but commonly unworkable in practice. And in fact, *much* is...
  19. tommcginnis

    IB Power User trading Options

    Noobs is 1,000% further as a Pythonisté than me, but I can for-sure tell you all about spreadsheets. From just trying to keep my toe in the API water, I think Noobs would recommend that Python mit der ib-synch set-up -- I have heard nothing but good things about it since its appearance. FWIW...
  20. tommcginnis

    IB Power User trading Options

    Keep rolling your own. (My 100% biased view.) TWS remains a trading platform with toys and bells and whistles cobbled onto it. (The "Risk Lab"{?} is a typical example -- it varies things by 5%-10%-and-more, whereas when my portfolio moved ±1%, that was a pretty big deal. My solution? (Actually...
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