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The 'lesser money' thing is appealing, for sure: light & nimble makes you, y'know -- light and nimble! :wtf: But something I see often is an inability of 'change-makers' to respond to changing conditions themselves. They see round pegs being mashed into square holes and think, "I can do better...

Thank you, gentlemen! I think the Chilé cancellation fits the bill -- it sounded like a nail to the chest of China/US trade resolutions, and then some humans stepped in and read what was going on, and concluded "Nooooo, no animosity here -- nothing at all to do with the parties directly --...

Hey, what did I just miss??? ES plunked from 31 to 23 and back to 32+, on what might best be termed "opening" volume. No economic data release that I can find; no headline 'dropped' at that moment. My usual sources have no explanation. Were it only price, I wouldn't give it a second thought...

Entirely fair question (IMO). I would offer my own observations: over time, Kevin has offered a number of posts to the ET community that have uniformly, • lacked any sort of magical thinking -- no bullshit, horseshit, chickenshit -- just • straight-ahead answers that involve clear-headed...

From an economics perspective, micro-structure is the straw man you raise in order to violate the Efficient Markets Hypothesis with relative impunity. With a perfect market (infinite numbers of voluntary buyers and sellers, none of whom are large enough to affect price; instantaneous and...

• I have no idea what "it" is, in your statements, but • No, P/L is not based on close, it is based on [Entry-Exit] > $0. "Exit" MAY have some degree of probabilistic outcome involved (typical for options, while the underlying is deterministic: it is what it is...) But... You have given no...

The market is telling you that it's highly likely to finish Friday at/above SPY 305. Your top-side expiration BE will be $305 + [the premium you received from the iron condor]. Between now and expiration, the market still has to chew through some remaining time value on the whole IC.

Okay, so, *totally* off-topic, but I just had to give a nod to one of the best screen names I've seen in quite a while. "HolyMacro".... just beautiful. :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup: :D

I can't tell if you think it's a good idea to spend $40 all at once, and lose thousands of Americans' lives, and destroy what squeaks by as Civil Society and pound it into lawlessness and debt, or to spend $1 a year for 10 or 20 or 40 years, destroying zero societies, losing zero American lives...

Bad metric. "Everyone is a genius in a bull market." Including dozu.

There is no single right answer. If you take $5 of capital and write a 50¢ spread on it, that's a 10% return on employed capital. A 10-to-1 if you go that route. And what of expectancy? But if you write that on the SPX, and then write something similar on the RUT, and then write something...

Additionally -- for the forex crowd -- I'd certainly short the EU$ until this gets recognized, and then (perhaps) go long it, anticipating a "cure." (W/in 6 months, I bet. W/OUT any shooting. Mebbe......)

I think you're absolutely right. To put this in TrumPidiot language, Erdogan is a local pimp who thinks he's a partner with these other guys. :rolleyes: Agent Orange just ceded the neighborhood to Putin -- a pimp who blackens the eyes of his whores and then wonders why business goes bad...

This isn't a game to them -- it's their *brand* -- on which they seek to build and manifest through the available playing field (Planet Earth, hello.) WOW that is misinformed. Ah! Now we're talking! I would aim most immediately at U.S. defense industries -- especially those involved in flight...

Maybe this is Trumpet's way to raise the far end of the yield curve?? :confused::rolleyes::confused::rolleyes:

TRUMP sez that with a cease-fire, the crisis is over. Every State Department wonk, and every military mind, know how buttfuqued that thought is... • Turkey is a member of NATO -- one that occupies a ferociously strategic piece of real estate, contested as far back as recorded history goes. In...

I have never seen a "T/A" book or article that explains the T/A freely used, every single day, by every single *successful* hedge/algo/"alternative financial vehicle" you care to name. It's as if the T/A toolset were all those oversized plastic screwdrivers and wrenches that are given to...

I get a kick out of some of these..... Okay, here's what I've got: • you had a rotten 5-lot of short iron condors, you were getting killed on the top side. (3015 short, going at Oct25...) • yesterday's/overnight drop has nearly got you back to positive, with your loss reduced to -$3.10 overall...

Interesting question, but after a bit of thought, "well of *course* there is! They're mirrors of each other -- opposites! What causes a breach (or a sustainment) of support will be the opposite of what causes a breach (or sustainment) of resistance. Optimism/pessimism; good news, bad news...

By "break-even point", are you referring to those strikes on either side of the straddle's center that represent where the straddle position value (whether long or short) will switch from positive to negative? This value is routinely calculated -- it *needs* to be done frequently, as it's...