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  1. tommcginnis

    Why do we get worst prices than NBBO for combo spreads?

    The market was what it was, but you didn't see it, because you have no volumes up. Your single trade made somebody who had posted that puppy long before go "Woot! Woot!" and make that godawful "Cha-ching" mime. The market went back to its more-expected pricing once your order was hit.
  2. tommcginnis

    Stock market trading courses

    eBay. They mention no price -- run from anyone who hides price. If it's on eBay, see if it gets bought in an active auction. Same ol' crap is same ol' crap. Good stuff will live on. In 2017, with the Interwebs and all that, there is no reason for anyone *not* to have a reputation, unless they...
  3. tommcginnis

    Is the VIX still pertinent?

    "Never use any "technical indicator" unless you know exactly how it was derived, and can put its meaning into a sentence that both your Mom and your baby sister can understand." Thus, a ten-period of an ATR at 1.30 means...
  4. tommcginnis

    Poised to pop *again*......SPX edition.

    "We're going to fart around here for a fortnight, until another boat payment is due." I think we all voted for the wrong pony.
  5. tommcginnis

    "the old are eating the young"

    While I agree *entirely* with the premise, I also disagree entirely, with the conclusion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ultimate_Resource
  6. tommcginnis

    Hit it and Quit it VS. Trading the whole session

    (As you might have already surmised,) The market behaves one way between cash-open and the European close, and another way for the next 90minutes, and a third way through about 15:40hrs, and then a fourth way from 15:40 to 16:00 or 16:15. The only way to know how these later segments trade is to...
  7. tommcginnis

    Spy futures

    I think your graph just put some rebar and 2x4s into my straw man. Or, to be musical, Rho, Rho, Rho your boat, Interest Rate regime, Merrily merrily merrily merrily -- Backwardation dream.
  8. tommcginnis

    Is the VIX still pertinent?

    FWIW, at this point, were I setting brackets for ES intra-day trades, there is no doubt that I would be using ATRs -- based on actual price movement, rather than any fold or manipulation of any sort of VIX -- an amalgam of volatilities implied by an option market that may or may not have the...
  9. tommcginnis

    Is the VIX still pertinent?

    "The VIX is irrelevant." Yeahhhhhh. About that....
  10. tommcginnis

    The S&P 500 has topped at 2430 on 6/1/17

    "Confirmation bias", anyone? I saw what I wanted to.....:rolleyes:
  11. tommcginnis

    Is the VIX still pertinent?

    The VIX is an index derived from option prices posted in an active market. We don't know any such value as "future volatility", so we have to make due with the volatility implied by the way applicable options are priced: Implied Volatility. In 2017, you don't even need to settle for the amalgam...
  12. tommcginnis

    FOMC tomorrow

    Yeah -- that low volume thing? "Pffffft." Drops on volume spell an agenda to watch. Drops on no volume spell boredom, and Buy-the-dip types. It's 10:15am ET as I write this, and the TRIN is moderately bearish at 1.25. My read right now is, ±1% SPX for the next week -- 2440 down to 2400.
  13. tommcginnis

    The S&P 500 has topped at 2430 on 6/1/17

    "Sorry vol" -- volume? If it's volume, it won't hold. It means that while there are sellers, there are not buyers. This is smarter money waiting to buy-on-the-dip, not scared money looking to exit. If you see volume pop, Woof! Be watching that! If you're short right now? Time to cover. If we...
  14. tommcginnis

    The S&P 500 has topped at 2430 on 6/1/17

    You guys aren't *seriously* expecting a drop, are you? This is a stair-step market, and has been for many months. (Since August'15's China re-val.) Without a change in fundamentals, ........ Clue-Phone ringing. Pick up, please.
  15. tommcginnis

    FOMC tomorrow

    Quarter-point rise. "In light of recent data," No requirement/expectation for September ("September is off the table!") Balance Sheet reductions in coming months, dependent on data returning to the 2% inflation target path, and continued 4.0%-4.5% unemployment. Market closes 2455 -- 15pts up...
  16. tommcginnis

    FOMC tomorrow

    NYSE TRIN is a "Whoa! Bearish!" 1.7.... Volume is light for 13:30hrs. Bid-ask spreads will start really stretching out now.
  17. tommcginnis

    Please explain Volume Number

    Tell me what CME sez. Tell me what TradingView sez. Then I'll put quotes around it and post it.
  18. tommcginnis

    IB Fedwire not received on same day

    And just so you know, just because your BA was debited, that doesn't mean that IB has received it. It could easily be that the cash got electronically "slow-walked" over to the wire desk. (Happens all the time; people go to lunch, the transmit sheet slips behind the desk, the toner needed...
  19. tommcginnis

    Using Average True Range (ATR) at key levels

    I don't believe "everyone [is] always focused around daily ATRx" I trade mostly on a 4hour/1min chart. I continuously graph two ATRs to lookbacks of the SPX that have consistent portent to current and near-future market action. YMMV.
  20. tommcginnis

    FOMC tomorrow

    It may indeed come in two parts, too: 2pm to let you know the decision ("No surprise" and the *verbage* behind the reason ("Ah!") -- and then, 2:30pm, for the press conference, just to add fuel to the fire.
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