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So I don't see anything where Hempton accuses the FTC of racism. I have read his latest post on HLF carefully and it appears rather balanced, all things considered (no matter how you slice it, he is talking his book). I dunno the answer to your question, since it's not just a matter of...

Nein nein nein, you ist wrong... Observe the trends from mid 2015 to the present.

So let me ask again, in this case, what's the point of this thread then? I believe nothing other than it's relatively easy to do some basic analysis using historical data. I am reasonably sure that any such analysis will show that you're talking bollocks. Sadly, yes, including me... I'm...

There is NO flight into JGBs and out of foreign assets. In fact, net purchases of foreign assets by the Japanese hit a record last week.

I am very curious... I've read Hempton's latest post on HLF and I don't see anything remotely like what you describe. Are you referring to another source?

Higher real rates, as mentioned; current account etc surplus; expectation of not much further that the BoJ can do... In fact, the causality between rates and the exchange rate might run the other way. This is also why you should also be careful about treating the interest rate parity-derived...

So your claim was wrong, but yet you think you're right? You haven't even bothered to do some basic statistics, either. You're an option guru all right! What was the point of this thread, again?

Why don't you talk to the author? He's pretty vocal on Wilmott...

Americans are doing a pretty good job of this themselves already and don't need anyone's help, it seems.

Given the state of US infrastructure, helicopter money, if done the right way, wouldn't be the stupidest idea out there...

It's all about Brexit at the mom...

Bond futures option skew varies with different regimes... Also depends on which futures. Lots of fun 'n games.

Listen to sle, he knows what he's talking about... In my space, you can do all sorts of work to figure out the dynamics of skew (represented often by the "backbone"). In fact, this is the holy grail, it's very hard to do and it's still very much a work in progress. If you want to understand...

I actually interviewed him a while ago... He's a pretty impressive guy.

Brilliant idea! Excuse me, can't talk, as I am gonna be busy "lather/rinse/repeat"-ing all the above for a while now...

No, it's not "worth it". Systematically buying tails doesn't work.

Not recently... Howvever, my recollection is that there's really nothing especially sexy to do arnd negative rates.

The latest TUT ratio is here, as pointed out on the other forum: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/files/ics-ratios-2016-09.pdf

It's not that easy... If the mkt in the underlying is wide, the likelihood of your orders being filled is also going to be lower, all else being equal. So yes, being long gamma means that you benefit if the "mkt comes to you", but you need to consider the probability of this occurring.

And that's precisely the problem...