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Have you actually looked at what sort of strikes you can get if you do this?

Could be, indeed...

Come again? You want to capitalize on a market crash by doing a 1x2 put spread? Methinks you might want to examine your thesis more carefully. How exactly do you expect your 1x2 to work in a market crash?

Calendar spreads in crude are a science unto themselves... Off the top of my head, Sep-Oct shouldn't be anything too exciting, but I am just not an expert on all the rinky-dinky aspects of the crude mkt.

marsman could tell us, but then he'd have to kill us...

I predict that you will be very successful this month, marsman... You should enjoy it!

Thing is, Japan is special and different. The structure of society is such that what we in the West perceive as utterly unimaginable is only a little bit crazy. Thus, while I agree with you about the extreme case, there's no reason to expect that the free lunch runs out any time soon. After...

Government debt is sorta irrelevant in the Japanese context. It's all about a few basic, but difficult choices that Japanese society as a whole has to make. One such choice is whether to permit much more immigration. The other is whether to "pull the plug on Grandma", so to speak. The former...

Well, there you have it then... Human error is therefore one of the risks of the biz. It ain't the only one.

2) is clearly false, as conclusively demonstrated by KCG...

Sorry, what's your point? That no fund delivers 30 or 50% per annum over a reasonably long horizon?

All rightie then, I think it's best if we just agree to disagree at this point...

Yes, my assumption is that real advantages don't really exist, or, if they do, are accompanied by large costs. Obviously, this is based on the parts of the mkt that I am familiar with. Huh? Did I say something wrong? My answer to your question is that my process (of trade identification and...

I was actually referring to the various claims discussed in the papers that you were not interested in, rather than this particular specific claim. But this one will do as well.

No, not these two... I am not entirely sure about the meaning of your terms. Might be what I meant. The two I was talking about are simply: a) predicting the future (not necessarily through use of inside information); and b) liquidity provision.

Ah, if you don't like the papers, the data can be obtained here (you may have to pay) or here (you may have to massage it) or here.

Those aren't the two I was referring to...

As long as you don't accuse me of appealing to authority... You can find some info here, here and here.

There are only ever two types of edge in the market. Everything falls into one category or another.

OK, suit yourself. "Sales" is a typo, so is "Lunch", "Bluetooth", "surround sound", "Property" and "Skating Ring Admission" (now that's a genuine typo). There are many more such items, but let's move on. Why don't you help me with the data for all these items, as I have requested? I have...