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Huh?

Sorry, I don't get this... I trade swaps and I think simple linear interp is often the most sensible thing to do in a professional context, as well.

This logic isn't altogether correct, if: a) you mark-to-market; and/or b) the concept of "opportunity cost" applies to you Still, I agree that it's largely an interesting, but philosophical point. Simple linear interpolation is trivial. Hardly falls into the "killing yourself" category.

Firstly, it's better than nothing... Secondly, these are quantities that help one's intuition to make more accurate decisions (that's true, empirically).

There are meeting-dated OIS for most major CBs, which is where everything is derived from. I don't know where you would find them publicly, though.

Amsterdam is a great town...

Just interpolate, man... For your purposes, bill rates are the same as Fed funds and should be perfectly fine to use.

Brilliant, there you have it then...

Democracy is soooo overrated...

There is no such thing really as "the stock's IV". IV is a quantity which is calculated for a particular option, based on its price. Therefore, you're seeing some quantity that TWS labels "option IV". To understand what that quantity is, you need to ask TWS.

If I could give this more "likes", I would...

OKI-DOKI, I can't agree with you there, but that's fine...

Well, I am just trying to suggest that we all agree on the general framework, but we disagree with the Fed's judgment (I happen to think they are too slow and scared as well, personally). The difference between our views seems to be that I am willing to give the Fed the benefit of doubt, in...

If you say so...

A hypothetical question then... If the Fed were to raise rates to 5% tomorrow and cause asset deflation, but also, say, 5% extra unemployment (using the U-6 measure), would you say it's the right thing to do?

I am not sure what you mean by "dilution"... What are they diluting?

My point was that if the Fed were to decide to move rates in steps which are too small, I would struggle to understand its reasoning.

I wasn't using "cunning plan" in a disparaging manner. As I mentioned, it has been discussed. Moreover, as you can see from the international experience it has been happening (mostly for technical reasons, to be fair). Conceptually, there's a reason why discretionary decisions about the short...

How can something that hasn't happened yet be "a fact"?

Firstly, this has been discussed on and off for a few years now in the mkt etc... So the OP isn't the first to come up its this cunning plan. Secondly, like I said, there's a logical argument for why the "step" should be lower nowadays. However, that said, it's still crazy, IMHO. Finally...