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Big flows in some near flies, apparently... Possibly all turn-related.

Like I said, you're certainly entitled to your opinion...

Whatever you say...

The fundamental observation, to summarize, is the following: - the reason the put spread is trading at less than intrinsic ($7.1 vs $10 in your example) is time value - time value is also the reason why you will not be assigned on the put You can't have one without the other, which means...

Well, firstly, it's better to look at all these things in trade-weighted terms. For the Yuan, we would observe arnd 9.5% depreciation from the 2015 peak. For the yen, it's more like 23.5% from the 2012 peak. And yes, you could argue that, at some point, the depreciation of the yen could...

"Nothing happens", while profound, doesn't really help. What would be the PNL on the put spread for which the OP paid ca $7? As to the OP's idea, this isn't really how options work. Why would anyone want to early exercise a put with quite a bit of time value?

You are missing smth... What happens if MSFT is at 74 in Jan 2019?

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/currentreport/#Highlights http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/marketreview/crude.cfm http://www.platts.com/pressreleases/2016/081116/no This is for energy, in particular...

A somewhat weaker yuan is a good thing. A much weaker yuan that causes / is a symptom of capital flight and instability is a bad thing.

A repo facility won't change the overall amounts of collateral in the system. The main problem they are trying to fix is the velocity of circulation. And yes, effectively, it's all about the shorts, but these shorts come from all sorts of sources. For instance, a dealer who sells Schatz...

How did you get the idea, Mav, that I think infrastructure spending would be radical or controversial? Again, you won't get me to disagree with you on the broad framework. But, guess what, the devil is always in the detail. My concern is that the Trump plan, basically, just makes very little...

Yeah, obviously, it goes w/o saying that you need to compare total returns...

Well, while I have no way of assessing what's minor and what's major, here's what I can see. Firstly, "transportation" is consistently the first item on the list of the investment areas mentioned. Secondly, this is the first item on the list of the specific stuff: "Implement a bold...

Why are you posing this question / offering this lesson to me? I am only mentioning the specific items described by a certain gentleman who is now your country's President Elect. Are you suggesting that the American people elected to the highest office in the land a person who requires the...

He has had many losing trades...

Well, there is a contradiction in there somewhere, as I am sure you're aware... But yeah, in the grand scheme of things, it's all one big happy family.

Yes, in which case it's so small it's not even worth discussing... I mean 0.5% of GDP is hardly going to make any difference, especially given the format. The Donald has specifically spoken about "roads and bridges" and "hospitals and schools" on the campaign trail. Obviously, it might have...

Yeah, it's gonna be great again...

What infrastructure spending? I thought this was one of the campaign promises, which would seem to suggest that the probability of it actually occurring is rather minuscule. Also, as the other poster mentioned, the "plan" which has been proposed so far envisions very little actual govt...

I think you've answered your own question here... Looking at the paper, it would seem that there's very little additional "juice" to be had from their systematic vol selling strategy.