Search results

The details of the household survey weren't all that weak actually. In general, both the establishment and the household surveys are actually not that horrible and there are some very cautious signs of improvement. However, it's nowhere near as optimistic as the headline number might suggest.

Besides, if you look at the avg hours worked a week it's down 0.1 on the month (instead of cutting workers, co's are just telling them to stay at home). 0.1 decline in weekly hours translates to arnd 350k jobs, so this is not rosy. Finally, I also like to look at the number of people in temp...

To Herr Von Mises: Agree with you, amico... Good luck to you also. To 5Yr: You will note that I said that there are no hard and fast rules while specifically mentioning the delivery consideration. However, to me delivery does not constitute a hard rule (I'm institutional), since I have no...

As a TRADER (caps yours), I like to think about the roll, as opposed to doing it on a specific date. The roll is a TRADE (caps mine), which can get quite volatile, so I would do it when it is likely, in my view, to make me money. I would never do anything as silly as always rolling on a...

I take it you were long? Actually, it seems that the move didn't have anything to do with politics, but rather everything to do with a US bank buying USD vs the majors in chunky size... Supposedly on the back of the Rio Tinto/Chinalco merger collapse (unwinding the pre-hedge or something).

Our statements are not mutually exclusive, dude... The particular day you're referring to is the last trading day before the first delivery date. My point is that what you're saying (symptom) follows from the hard exchange delivery rules that I am talking about (root cause).

There are no hard and fast rules for rolls. The only tangible fact is that you can end up holding cash bonds, if you're long U9 on or later than Sep 1. People who don't like cash bonds will stop using the front contract before that deadline and roll what positions they have into Z9. When...

Firstly, this is consumer ABS we be talking about, not RMBS, so it's not directly about mtges. Secondly, yes, it's bad, but the ratings agencies have been a lot more rigorous with this stuff. As a result, AAA-rated ABS is meaningfully AAA, not a stuff of fiction (which is why there's not...

Guys, I ain't a fan of these handouts, but let's try to be objective for a sec... Firstly, Dudley didn't just claim these assets are completely safe. He said that, with the haircut that the Fed is charging, the rating and the funding available, losses would be limited (the Fed would be...

Firstly, it's not the Fed that's introduced the fine. It's TPMG, which is a market association, sponsored by the Fed. Secondly, the repo squeeze was happening to the current 10s (it's a smaller issue with a big short base) and not to the 10y note futures CTD (besides the squeeze is...

Jun 1 was the first delivery day for the Jun contract. It's natural that there's a certain drop in volume in the front contract after first delivery date, 'cause some mkt participants are ill equipped to deal with cash bonds.

Isn't all this just about the moral hazard side-effect of providing social safety nets? If you know that you will always get bailed out when/if you run out of resources in the future, why deny yourself creature comforts and not consume in the present.

I am so unhappy with all this 'Global Macro is the way to go' crap that's making the rounds in the mkt now... It's no more the 'way to go' than any other group of strategies. There's nothing inherently better or worse about global macro types of trading over a longer horizon. As a style it...

Isn't all this part of the job description of a macro trader? Everything is variable and it's your job to be aware of the real risk you're running, as opposed to the numbers you see on the screen. That's where it turns into art rather than science. To re-iterate, and I speak from bitter...

Sorry, have I heard this right? Are people here suggesting that the guy in the article, given his circumstances, actually starts trading and taking risk with his remaining capital? I don't quite know what to say to that.

Actually, I was thinking that we need not go too far... Don't we already have a very similar attempt at moral economics on record? I am talking about Islamic economics and the ill-fated attempt to implement it in Iran. There's lessons to be learned there that are directly applicable to the...

It's all about the dangers of low liquidity... Instead of cash, he's stuck with a NY condo, a highly illiquid asset right about now, which he's unable to fund. The moral of the story is that home ownership comes with a downside that has been neglected, but is now, for many, realized.

Yes, the majority of banks have already shut down their prop desks. However, iBanks are not the only places with 'very smart, big pocketed money', are they? Last I heard hedge funds are not quitting trading... That's why I say it's a silly things to say. Just because banks are prohibited...

I think you might be a wee bit out of date on this, TZ... From what I heard, in urban areas, caste has become much less relevant. In the other areas, the pendulum has swung the other way, in fact, with all sorts of positive discrimination occurring.

That's a silly thing to say... I think what you're seeing is people realizing that prop trading at iBanks is a bad thing that will be frowned upon by the authorities. Nothing more, nothing less...