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I agree with the other posters here, esp what PI said about equities. The only thing that's quite clear is that nominal bonds are a very bad investment during times of high inflation, pretty much regardless of how cheap they become (yield rises). Other asset classes, such as commodities...

Firstly, doesn't the fact that bond yields are going up imply that bonds are, in fact, going down, rather than up? Secondly, where does it say in the Good Book that stock and bond prices can never go up together? I am not entirely sure what you mean by "clash". Finally, in an old old thread...

I wonder why it doesn't say anywhere that he works (or used to until very recently) for Barclays, as their German economist. I have spoken to him a couple of times and he knows his stuff, but I never suspected him of having an online "alter ego". That's funny stuff...

Actually, speculating in stocks arguably hurts the general public more than speculating in oil and gas (creating asset bubbles).

Well, I am not sure I would completely agree with you there, PI... It's all about the timing. I agree that 'eventually' asset price inflation will, in fact, filter through to CPI. However, it's certainly not going to happen now or at any time very soon. I am quite sure of that given the...

Didn't see this, Monty, sorry... As a rough guide, I use CFTC's data. It's published weekly and contains various data about speculative longs/shorts vs non-spec longs/shorts. I get that info from BBG, but it's apparently available from CFTC directly. I use it as just a loose guide, rather...

But then again... Here comes Danny with a punchy headline: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5561259/Green-shoots-Strictly-for-the-colour-blind.html

I disagree with you/Adam there, pi. That's precisely the point that AI makes... Specifically, with an impaired credit channel asset price price inflation does NOT translate into CPI. I completely agree with the logic as applied to the bubble years, where credit was too readily...

Here's some pretty good blurbage of a similar sort from Accrued Interest: http://accruedint.blogspot.com/2009/06/smackdown-week-now-consumers-are-all.html

Obviously... However, what I am referring to is different. If everyone makes their bids/offers with the expectation that the audience of buyers is bigger than the audience of sellers, prices will be systematically higher than fundamental value.

What are you talking about? I am referring to the comparison between ex-ante value of options and their ex-post, realized return. Again, you just need to look at implied vs delivered vol to see the phenomenon. I have no idea what you're referring to when you say 'options have become the...

Yes, for sure... Question is whether, in your view, there's a systematic supply/demand imbalance between buyers and sellers. Here's my take. In general, vol supply comes from entities that are, structurally, in the insurance biz (insurers proper, asset managers, etc). These entities...

For all and any symbol/instrument/mkt...

For whoever is interested in expressing their view on a fundamental aspect of options (if anyone)... This arose from an argument we were having with someone on another forum. It is often posited that realized vol is lower than implied vol and that relationship is statistically significant...

No, it's calculated by most practitioners as 2 * 5y - 2y - 10y. Sometimes people also use (2y + 10y)/2 - 5y (aka avg fly spread) or 2y + 10y - 2 * 5y (aka gross fly spread). I, and most people I know in the mkt, still prefer to use the first formula, so to me the numbers you have given imply...

Shouldn't you be able to do all this rather easily with Excel? I think with Solver etc, it should be able to do pretty much everything you need...

I'm pretty sure it was mainly the higher than expected CPI print. Add to that the fact that the long gilt auction was quite strong and it's all bullish for cable.

Very misleading title! This isn't Reuters. It's an opinion of a technical analyst dude by the name of Prechter. Pls be careful with this...

I don't know if you will find it, but it may be worth trying here: http://webnet.oecd.org/wbos/

To be fair, Goldies managed to get Redi hooked up to Excel for execution, but I still don't like it. Don't like the interface, it's too crowded and all the bells and whistles make it laggy. Don't like their spreaders, they're needlessly complicated. Finally, don't like their fees. This...