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  1. M

    How to hedge against a Fed Funds Rate hike, using futures?

    You would short FF futures, but proper liquidity in those is only available out to 2y, at the most, if you're lucky. If you want to do further (at most up to 5y) and are confined to futures, you would have to do Eurodollars and run the LIBOR/OIS risk. If you want further still, you will need...
  2. M

    U.S. Bailout Costs May Reach $23.7 Trillion, TARP Inspector Says

    Do try... You may better yourself in the process. Anyways, apologies to the community for taking this thread off track, but I just couldn't resist, it was too amusing.
  3. M

    U.S. Bailout Costs May Reach $23.7 Trillion, TARP Inspector Says

    I see... I am truly happy that your estimation of me has risen. To be approved by your august self has been my sole purpose in life... Duration on ET may or may not be a condition sufficient to demonstrate perspective and interest (it may not be, because I, for example, have no way of...
  4. M

    U.S. Bailout Costs May Reach $23.7 Trillion, TARP Inspector Says

    In that case, it should obviously be 'mg'. Out of idle curiosity, why do you feel the urge to approve my thinking or posts or to classify me as a 'troll'? Also, what gave you the idea that the duration of ET membership has any significance whatsoever? I don't really have a problem with...
  5. M

    Cit Halted

    Here's a view on the CIT situation that I like: http://accruedint.blogspot.com/2009/07/return-of-jedi.html Esp since AI is a corp/muni credit expert...
  6. M

    U.S. Bailout Costs May Reach $23.7 Trillion, TARP Inspector Says

    Who's 'mh'? Might I ask if you are addressing me in this condescending fashion?
  7. M

    Cit Halted

    *CIT SEES 2Q LOSS OF MORE THAN $1.5 BILLION *CIT SAYS MAY SEEK BANKRUPTCY WITHOUT SUCCESSFUL AUG Tender *CIT SAYS `EXISTING LIQUIDITY' NOT ENOUGH FOR AUG. DEBT PAYMENT *CIT EXPERIENCED 'SIGNIFICANT' BOOST IN DRAWS ON COMMITMENTS *CIT SAYS CIT BANK COULD BE PUT IN RECEIVERSHIP IF COMPANY...
  8. M

    U.S. Bailout Costs May Reach $23.7 Trillion, TARP Inspector Says

    Landis is exactly right... Looks like this Inspector General fellow took the notional values of all the liquidity backstops, insurance and various other programs, summed them all up and came up with the nominal $23.7trn number. This includes, for instance, the writedown to 0 of all the...
  9. M

    US commercial paper market still contracting - indicating trouble ahead

    Yes, all true... However, don't we sorta all universally agree that deleveraging and decreasing reliance on debt, esp ultra short-term debt, is a good and necessary thing? If that is the case, do we believe it needs to happen only in financial mkts or also in the real economy? For...
  10. M

    US commercial paper market still contracting - indicating trouble ahead

    I actually would view these developments in the CP mkt as positive, at the current juncture. Firstly, a large chunk of CP issuance used to be done by financials. Given that, the continuing contraction of the CP mkt reflects much less supply coming out of banks. That, in turn, would imply...
  11. M

    improve a country without spending money

    Most of your suggestions would actually cost a great deal of money and political will, unless you're able to force entire constituencies to behave according to new rules. The other poster is right, also, that lots of these/similar measures (e.g. 3,4 and 6) were actually tried in the Soviet...
  12. M

    How long before the Fed Funds rate is rised again?

    Starting in Q3 2010, barring any further economic deterioration, IMHO... As to the bubble creation, it's not necessarily the same thing. There's a view that monetary policy can't, by itself, address bubbles, so if they introduce another entity to regulate leverage, they might be able to...
  13. M

    Bonds for the small trader

    Well, things are sorta in flux in this area. Partly it's sorta easier to use a swap curve, because the trsy curve is a bit of a pain to build, especially these days. Secondly, swap curves are smooth by construction which makes them a useful common denominator for calculation of various bond...
  14. M

    Dualflation

    Fair enough... I just thought that ET wouldn't be a natural destination of choice for an economist.
  15. M

    Dualflation

    I couldn't resist, as the phrase felt particularly appropriate. I was just wondering what you, a macroeconomist, were doing on a forum like this, that's all...
  16. M

    Bonds for the small trader

    The PV of the bond is, by definition, its mkt price. Which means that, yes, "undervalued" is subjective and is normally used to denote a bond that trades too cheap vs some sort of a model/view. It doesn't necessarily have to be an explicit view on macro/rates. Sometimes it has to do with the...
  17. M

    Dualflation

    What's a nice girl like you doing in a place like this? :D
  18. M

    Confused about eurodollars

    I think you have pretty much answered your own questions, no? Assuming you're looking at the two alternatives at the exact same time, what do you think you would receive if you sold the option, rather than early exercising?
  19. M

    Roubini About Inflation

    By pushing up the risk-free rates, which in turn pushes up cost of capital, which makes investment unattractive.
  20. M

    Is Max Keiser Correct or Incorrect in His 'Global Casino Model' Hedge Fund Theory?

    Enlighten me, o Great Anaconda, the Omniscient God of Finance, in what precise way are activist hedge funds "good", as opposed to the "bad" parasite ones? On another note, can I just point something out to you here? In the several responses you have made to my posts, you have, so far, called...
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