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Are you investing in govt bonds in these countries? If you are, I'd look at sov CDS, but the webpage should be OK, in a rough sense. Ultimately, given the methodology, it might be easier to just look at the sovereign rating. If you're putting money into banks or equity mkts in the countries...

Isn't this just a dynastic battle for succession between the Piechs and the Porsches? With the Wiedeking sorta stuck in the middle as a pawn? That was my impression, from what I have read in the papers.

This one's for you, BLSH! Japanese Exports Fall at Slower Pace as Slump Eases By Jason Clenfield and Kyoko Shimodoi July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s exports fell in June at the slowest pace this year as demand picked up worldwide, helping the trade surplus widen for the first time in...

But this is just a short summary of some UK figures. Furthermore, what on Earth are you referring to as a "think tank"? The ONS, the TUC or the online mag that published the article? How can you possibly call this 'an analysis'? It is just a summary of a well-known situation that doesn't...

Maybe if you tell me what you're actually trying to achieve, I could help you...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=170864

My current personal favorites: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/ http://macro-man.blogspot.com/ http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

Tough question... None of them, to be honest. I would only make a meaningful comparison if I were an expert on the mkts in question. I am not an EM expert, but I suppose I would be somewhat comfortable with using his "Country Risk Premium" numbers for EM countries, because in those cases a...

If you believe the guy's methodology, then it's the last column. Otherwise, you can come up with your own estimate using any of the three other columns as inputs.

May I ask? Does the actual asset have to trade in the cash mkt to make the derivative legal? Why is that?

Actually, the "25x LIBOR" headline is complete bollox and quite misleading. You can't compares a rate on a 3yr loan with current 3M LIBOR. In reality, it's more like 8 times LIBOR. Still, it's one good deal for Pimco et al, one bad deal for CIT.

It's the very definition of loan sharking, if you ask me. I'm more than certain that kneecaps will be broken if they screw anything up... Loan term 2.5 yrs. $2bn available now, $1bn by month end. 5% fee ($100mm on the initial $2bn) and LIBOR + 1000bp (with floor at 3% !). Collateral...

Well, retail sales have been bouncing a bit recently, which is mostly due to a weak pound. Otherwise, everything's still getting worse, but this 'worse' is better than people's expectations, which were rather dire.

Cool, thx... Your analysis sounds reasonable and provides some worthwhile food for thought. I will get back to you with my views on the matter and we can compare notes. And I would never think of making fun of someone's thoughts on these complicated issues, even if I disagree with them.

Yes, agreed, they don't have to raise rates now, but at some point the monetary aggregates will start to move as a result of all the measures. Moreover, muted inflation expectations aren't going to persist forever. There's also the question of the Fed's inflation-targeting and...

Could be, although all the media I pay attention to (mostly the blogosphere, not the mainstream stuff) has been pronouncedly bearish, so I am not hearing a lot of 'green shoots' propaganda, to be honest. I also think there's worse to come, but I have become painfully aware of 'base effects'...

So why not report the good news, then, with your commentary on why it's marginal? Surely, that would be a more consistent approach? As to the rest of your post, I actually happen to agree with you, to a certain degree. My only complaint is that by presenting such a biased view of the world...

True, but these dynamics ain't exactly rocket science. Given your analysis above, care to estimate the timing of the hike(s)?

How is this news to you, if I may ask? People have been talking about the phenomenon for months now, mostly in the context of the reduction in the 'Average Weekly Hours' figure that's published by the BLS.

BLSH, I actually agree with your view and I know Marty Feldstein's stance (the BBG article is, actually, rather tame and he's a lot more bearish in person). However, you tediously and predictably only post news/info that's negative the economy. I don't know whether this reflects your views...