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I don't think it was so much the GDP. It was the consumption figures and the revisions to the previous quarter's number.

I use BBG, but I wasn't there last night... Even if I were I have nothing to tell me that BBG was 'late', since BBG is the place where I get the results from. Just out of curiosity, they were late vs who/what?

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=171649

Sorry, you guys do realize he's being intentionally facetious? He's not defending GS, he's making fun of them... I thought it was super funny. "That's not how we look at it; at Goldman we always round to the nearest $US50 billion, so anything less than $US50 billion rounds to zero."

Yep, those were the days... Sadly, nowadays Citi people don't compare favorably with the other treasury dealers, IMHO, so they'd probably be the last to know.

Payrolls is the first such announcement that comes to mind. I don't think GDP is normally massively significant, but it might be tomorrow, 'cause there's a lot of uncertainty.

Agree with RR here... You always need to know what news is coming out, whether or not it will move the mkt and how you expect it to move the mkt. You can then make an informed decision whether or not you want to hold a position over whatever figures are being released. Some people trade the...

Up 35% this year, last I heard... And, from what I hear it ain't about HY, either.

Because it's much more likely that the bank you give money to goes under before the country's govt does, rather than vice versa. So the bigger question is whether, in case of the bank's failure, the govt has a scheme to protect your deposit. No, it's not directly related. The only...

In my view, there's actual logic the authorities are adhering to behind the madness... I can imagine that the powers that be have said to themselves: "Our primary short-term concern is to recapitalize the banking system somehow. We don't really care how it's done, as long as it's done. Once...

Agree, these things are becoming increasingly more complex in today's global political economy. There's an interesting article that I remember reading about this which, essentially, suggests that the job of central bank is hopeless, almost by definition. The idea is that according to Ashby's...

Nice, usedto... Right you were. 4bps tail, only 36.7% indirects, all in all it's a pukefest. Well done!

Indeed... They just got downgraded from BBB to CC. Even if the Wisconsin regulator allows them to use reserves to pay claims, it's not gonna do them any good. In general, it's true that, funnily enough, the closer to death a monoline gets, the longer its expected life going to be, since...

The conversion factor is fixed for a given bond in the deliverable basket for the life of a given futures contract. The conversion factor doesn't change. If you think about what the conversion factor is and how it is computed, you'll realize that it has to remain constant for each given...

Hmmmm, I would have to strongly disagree with you here... The public sector is technically bankrupt (negative net worth); debt to GDP is arnd 180%; about 23% of general account expenditure goes towards debt servicing; the demographic situation is so terrible everyone and their mother has been...

No, you don't... That's my whole point. If I effectively don't have to mk-to-mkt, I am free to determine my distribution at expiry exogenously. Again, I think of it as a bespoke insurance policy where there is no observable vol mkt. I am pretty sure that such things pre-date BSM.

Indeedy, one of us may very well be wrong... Maybe we should open the question to the audience in the Options forum and see whether anyone has anything useful to say on the subject. I am always willing to enhance my understanding. Thank you and same to you.

I am not saying he's an insurance co; I'm just saying that he acts as one for purposes of this specific trade. I don't know anything about any global concerns, such as diversification. I don't speak about what I don't know. Yes, you're right about event risk, but I am not sure how it...

What is the point then? You're absolutely right about selling vol, but it's only sensible if you don't have to mark-to-market. This is exactly what insurance companies do, they sell vol to us. Obviously, it's the nature of their biz that they also can't structurally avoid 'delta', so they...

I don't understand your point. I do not know how to define an expiry trade if maturity is infinite. I also don't understand what path-dependency has to do with anything. All I am saying that if I have enough cash to reserve against a potential max loss of $10B, MTM loss (as long as it's less...