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This article is utter nonsense... The bit about Japan is a joke. Japan was and is still in deflation. The fact that it's an "expensive" country has nothing to do with the rate at which prices are rising or falling. Moreover, what sort of a measure of inflation is "expensive"? Did the guy...

Seeing as how I have skin in this game, can you pls enlighten me as to what Ukrainian people are saying about the famine? I'd love to know who was behind it... Have a feeling that you're gonna say it's the Jews, but would love to hear some substance.

Huh? Is this a serious question?

For the record, I couldn't possibly disagree with you more (more in my PM).

You're confusing me... Let's just stay with the subject I was actually asking about and try not to digress. Your initial post said that low rates act as a disincentive to lend. What specific "rates" did you refer to in that statement?

You have to be aware of the key difference between then and now... 102 bank failures that have occurred in the last 2 years have cost the FDIC depositor insurance fund 25% of assets. 747 financial institution failures between 1989 - 1995 have cost the FDIC depositor insurance fund 19% of...

Let me get this straight... You're saying the following: 'low base rate' --> 'less saving' --> 'less capital available for investment' Moreover, if I am not mistaken, you're also suggesting that this is what's happening at the moment in the mkts? Is my summary correct?

I don't understand this at all...

I believe spindr is 100% right... Neither strategy gives you free money over the other... What they do give you is different profit/loss profiles over the lifetime of the trade. One of these profiles may suit you more than the other. As a result, IMHO, you should stop looking at the...

This is waaaay too funny! This Greg fella should be a comedian...

I agree with nonlinear here... While there may not exist a general Kelly-like framework with analytical solutions, all you need to do is define the appropriate parameters for your particular strategy and just apply Monte Carlo. If you do it sufficiently rigorously and your hypothesis is...

I am not offended or anything like that, so it's nothing childish. It's just that if there's a consensus that there's no info, no ideas or meaning in these sorts of posts, I'm perfectly happy to stop, honestly.

This opinion makes ABSOLUTELY no sense to me and I vehemently disagree with your assessment, Mark. If you care, pls do enlighten me what your reasoning might be. At any rate, the unofficial masters of this forum have spoken... You shall hear not a peep more of this from moi.

Yes, in my experience, there's a lot less fun 'n games in front eurodollars than in other ccies. As a result, it's probably fair to expect things to happen in an orderly fashion as John describes. However, you never know...

Yes, I am, in fact, aware that a trade normally involves a buy and a sell. The obvious question, as I am sure you know, my friend xflat, is who 'bot' and who 'sold'. Now I know that the flows I specifically mentioned above involve paper buying and the mkt-maker selling. As to whether these...

Indeed, I believe that's what I said. As to the motivation, etc, I might know or I might not. I suspect I probably know more than you think. At any rate, I'll happily post no more, as this information is unnecessary or confusing/misleading.

The important question to ask is whether they are black or white. Moreover, just thinking out loud, they could actually be Schroedinger's swans, both alive and dead, black and white at the same time...

Looks like the housing mkt is continuing to weigh on things. OER, lodging etc are mostly to blame for lower than expected core.

In your personal experience of selling call/put spreads (say, strikes K1 and K2; net premium recvd P), have you ever managed to lose more than ABS(K1-K2)-P?

Huh? How do you come up with this conclusion?