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  1. M

    Buying puts vs buying calls

    Try this old Goldies paper for a reasonable intro: http://www.ederman.com/new/docs/risk-regimes_of_volatility.pdf Obviously, there's been a lot of work done since then. Another book that I would highly recommend is filthy's 'Volatility Trading'...
  2. M

    Short long-dated U.S. treasuries/Long USD

    It's just a steepener, innit? It has its merits. It works in a few particular scenarios, but doesn't work in a variety of others. Good luck...
  3. M

    WSJ: Debtors to the Front

    I am confused about the claim the author makes in this article. Surely, calling China a 'debtor' and a 'borrower' is rather silly? What about India? When did they last borrow from the IMF?
  4. M

    Buying puts vs buying calls

    If you want to pursue this beyond the simple skew effects, you may want to look at various local volatility models, such as the 'sticky' ones of Derman's.
  5. M

    Anybody else short US 30 Bond

    Steepening today, on the back of this, which, I hope, everyone has seen: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auBVY_IxvAk4
  6. M

    Bank of Japan May Forecast Third Year of Deflation This Week

    I don't know anything about any general ET logic... Moreover, I don't see anything with my reasoning. It is a fact that, if rates were to go up, Japan would be unable to deal with the ballooning costs of servicing its debt. Given the politics, CPI will not go up, so that the BoJ doesn't get...
  7. M

    Portfolio insurance and 1987 crash

    Given the requirements stipulated by the problem, of course it's possible, even not taking into account additional transaction costs. I would be very curious as to why gamma hedging needs to be done with calls, rather than straddles. Good luck with CPPI...
  8. M

    Bank of Japan May Forecast Third Year of Deflation This Week

    Japan cannot possibly afford inflation, so there will be deflation, by definition. However, I wouldn't go crazy buying JGBs. There's going to be a rude awakening at some point. It's been twenty years in the making. In the past week, especially, there's been a lot of flow expressing the...
  9. M

    Could the commercial-paper conduit industry vanish in 2010?

    Wait a sec... Shouldn't we welcome these developments? I thought tighter regulation bank regulation is welcome, so death of these conduits, which are off-balance sheet, regulatory arb vehicles, would be a good thing?
  10. M

    JP Morgan's Cash Dwindles by 1/2 in Last Year, And Cash Loss is Accelerating

    Yeah, sure, JP's cash position is getting worse... I guess that's why they've been offering term cash aggressively in the unsecured mkt for the last few months. I don't believe it for a second... BLSH, can you please make sure to differentiate in the title of your posts whether it's...
  11. M

    EUR/GBP to trade or not to trade

    I got out at 0.9131... Could have held on and been a bit more patient, for sure, but my experience is that GBP always overshoots. Moreover, EURCHF looks better risk/reward to me now.
  12. M

    UK GDP shocker Q3 -0,4 Q/Q - FTSE rises

    The pre-packaged answer normally given is that GDP is backward looking... A couple of reason this weak GDP could appear positive for stocks: 1) GBP TWI is down by more than 1%; 2) likelihood of a more 'helpful', less hawkish BoE. Moreover, I would think that most of the move in the FTSE is...
  13. M

    EUR/GBP to trade or not to trade

    Out of EURGBP, switching into EURCHF.
  14. M

    The Unemployment numbers

    I would certainly agree that the woman should have exercised better judgement. I certainly wouldn't have tried to cite Mao as an example for US high schoolers. All I wanted to say is that appreciation of Marx doesn't necessarily make one a Marxist...
  15. M

    The Unemployment numbers

    I agree, he's certainly evil... However, does it mean that Maoist political philosophy is necessarily evil? Not sure... There's a few other examples like that. As to Hitler, in my view, both Hitler the man and Hitler's political views, what little substance they had, were evil.
  16. M

    The Unemployment numbers

    This is getting sorta dumb, I think... Marx is one of MY personal favorite political philosophers. I think his contribution to our understanding of political economy is immense. Does that make me a Marxist? Not necessarily... I don't know (and don't care) whether Dunn is a Maoist. She...
  17. M

    An Unsustainable Path of Debt Expansion

    No, you haven't, really... Firstly, while I now understand your point about debt and GDP, I would strongly disagree with it. I think what you're referring to (and correct me if I am wrong) is the velocity of money for wider aggregates. From what I can see, that measure has actually grown...
  18. M

    EUR/GBP to trade or not to trade

    I am gonna hold on to this one for a while...
  19. M

    An Unsustainable Path of Debt Expansion

    With all due respect I disagree with quite a few of your points, Misthos... What do you define as the 'near future'? 10yrs or 100yrs? Where do you see a diminishing GDP? Are you referring to real GDP, maybe, rather than nominal one? Is it world GDP that's diminishing or the US GDP? As...
  20. M

    Wisdom = King + Volcker

    And here we go. Gordon strikes back: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6397375/Gordon-Brown-rebuffs-Mervyn-Kings-suggestion-that-banks-need-breaking-up.html
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