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There is a discussion of related research here: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-12/trump-s-dangerous-disability-it-s-the-dunning-kruger-effect Obviously, it's presented in the context of politics.

Well, I have no real way of telling, but Pure Alpha and All Weather seem to perform very differently and have different fee structures, so I'd imagine that they genuinely are different.

There are many ways and it's entirely up to you... You need to figure out what you're trying to achieve first.

160bn is the entire BW AUM. All Weather is less than half of it, last I looked.

Yes, although it could, in fact, be indirectly caused by easy monetary policy, if such policy is perceived by the mkt to be too easy. In such a case, an investor could argue that the excessively generous central bank is sowing the seeds of bigly yuge inflation in the future. You can observe...

Many possible scenarios... Most broadly, if you happen to have a view that, fundamentally, the world is destined for a period of low growth (the fashionable term of late is 'secular stagnation'), you may feel that long-dated bonds offer sufficient reward for the risk, especially relative to...

The logic is varied and never straightforward and that's what makes the mkt... But I can offer you a few possibilities... Simplest one is that an investor might feel that the Fed is making a mistake hiking rates into a coming economic sh1tstorm. In such a scenario, it's nearly certain that...

Just curious, could you be referring to my responses here?

Yes, but that's what happens when you have an implicitly colluding banking cartel... I was just trying to demonstrate the logic. Using a 3m t-bill vs a 2y bond works just as well. Point is that the Fed hikes affect the short rate, which is the anchor for the return you get from any other...

Well, think about it from first principles, so to speak... Fed raises rates, so the entire yield curve responds. Let's assume that the response is, in fact, a parallel rise in yields. As you say, if I like buying short term bonds, they have become cheaper and will provide more yield...

No need to edit, as it's all correct... A small technical detail is that the Fed target is the federal funds rate which is an unsecured overnight interbank rate, rather than anything related to 30 days.

Why are we talking about 10y bonds at all? Firstly, rate hikes aren't likely to have a mechanical effect on 10y bonds. In fact, the relationship between the two rates is tenuous and complicated, at best. For instance, 10y USTs were trading at a higher yield in 2013 when rates were at 0...

What you hear BBG say etc is a reflection of the current mkt pricing. Like all other things in the mkt, it's subject to change. It's neither right nor wrong at any given time. As to the investors buying the higher yield bonds, why would they want to do that if, at least in theory, cash in...

After the election, there were more sellers of these relatively low-delta EURUSD puts than buyers... Et voila!

People are selling the fact...

Unfortunately for you, vol really moved against you... As someone already mentioned, it's related to the French election. Strike vol on the 1st of May - 9.34%, strike vol now - 7.45%. There's also some theta, obviously.

Jared Kushner and his family loves globalisation, it seems: http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/06/news/jared-kushner-nicole-family-event/ If it's good enuff for the Prez and his relatives, it's gotta be good for everyone.

One suggestion I would make is you should try to produce at least a rough estimate of transaction costs, which takes into account your execution methodology (e.g. are you hitting the best available bid or sitting on the offer at some "fair" selling price). This may be especially relevant if...

This is a confusing thread... The title asks how exchanges make money, while the actual post doesn't and instead focuses on market makers.

I don't recall making any pronouncements about inflation. Trump, banks and Goldies, in particular, yes..