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Long ES 2000.50

Do not hold leveraged ETFs longterm. They'll still have to rebalance daily AND suffer rollover/contango losses on contract changes.

I feel like a lot of spreads are having whacky behavior due to fundamental shifts in commodity pricing going on. Anyone else?

Hah so they went and drove it back to 2014 again in cash markets. Typical. That rejection was pretty strong though.

Sierra Chart. If you have IB I recommend SC as its cheap for package 5 and real CME data per month (maybe 70$/month all up for everything). TWS sucks for any real visualization IMO.

Out of my ES short for 46 ticks, DX short for 247 ticks, left my VX spread and 6J longs on. Will wait to see how things go tomorrow.

This 1998-1999 level has been the range support. So yeah, in general, 2000.

"Everything is awesome."

There are CSOs on WTI and Brent both on CME and ICE. Never traded them myself, but I know they're there. http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/files/trading-energy-calendar-spread-options.pdf

To clarify, what I meant by bid depth and bargain buying before usually means price moves towards aggregate size - and if the bid depth keeps remaining large it'll keep moving through it for the most part. As far as NQ, I see a *potential* double top: Getting short looks like the play to me.

IMO I wouldn't even try to worry about that angle. It's too derivative and likely not something you'll be able to easily model or control. There are spread options on calendars, they're called CSOs. I do know ICE has options on the WTI/Brent spread as well. As far as hedging them, I'd imagine a...

Well I'd figure that if you've observed volatility to create dislocations in the curve and you trade off of that (presumably by fading it) then wouldn't it be the same in reverse in that you're anticipating the dislocation from a presently normal curve? Just like if one buys an ATM straddle...

Whoever said anything about vol though? I thought these were trades purely based on the technicals of future expectation of price and how the interrelationships play out across the curve. Additionally by moving away from front months it seems like an attempt to reduce the effect of front month...

Sure is a lot of bid depth though and that usually means bargain hunters are in control until they stop seeing it as a bargain.

Only thing that kinda bothers me is this seems much too obvious, feels like there's been no significant "fight." On the other hand, I do see a double top in NQ daily, but I don't see a "kill 'em all" stop run, and that's usually par for the course. The expectation has also generally been that...

Lots of bid size down there... you know what that usually means. TF looks ready to break that rising wedge after sideways the whole day. SPI, N225, and STW already in peace out mode - let's hope this continues.

Yep we have all the makings of an extra large shit sandwhich here. Wonder what the magicians will pull out of their hats this time.

Dumb question but what's an actual example of a 1vs6 month combo? Are talking dec/jun and then some other 1-month calendar on the other side (eg mar/feb)?

Got short ES again at 2011.

You could show new/naive traders exact blueprints on successful trades and they'll still not make money because the method and execution aren't even what's primarily holding them back at that point.