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  1. BlueWaterSailor

    Nasdaq and S&P on the cusp of a Breakdown

    Dude. You're making all these absolutely assured predictions... but it's obvious that you're not putting any money behind them, or you'd have been dead broke 500+ posts ago. You've been dead wrong a number of times that I've seen, so you're not trading with either any size or any actual...
  2. BlueWaterSailor

    Time to short the market...

    Oh, was there an implicit offer to cover any losses I might have in your post? If there was, I missed it. Otherwise, this kind of "freebies" are available from everybody and their dog's cousin - and yours has no more value than anyone else's.
  3. BlueWaterSailor

    Option Buying Tips?

    This is actually one of the few positives of buying options with a longer expiration period: theta is still small and grows very slowly. Once you get to 45 days or so, it starts to accelerate.
  4. BlueWaterSailor

    Time to short the market...

    Reacting to what the market's already done, instead of dealing with what it's currently doing? I think I've seen that movie. Just can't remember whether is was double or triple X-rated... "The Deep Reaming of the Innocents", or something like that.
  5. BlueWaterSailor

    Newer Traders, Consider Slowing Down

    That's a guaranteed way to make trading a meaningless game - and to lose money in HUGE amounts as soon as they go live. There's a balance to everything - and while I understand the point you're trying to make, "demo trading for many years" is way, way the hell past the crazy side of the...
  6. BlueWaterSailor

    thanks destriero

    100% spot on. I ran across ET about a year back, when I was just starting to learn about finance, trading, options... the whole ball of wax in one big chunk. Biggest mountain I've climbed in a long and adventurous life (and I've climbed plenty of tall ones.) Not to diminish anyone else's...
  7. BlueWaterSailor

    New, Modern Options Strategy Builder

    A friend of mine turned me onto it this morning; it's pretty impressive, and fun to play with. I suspect that newbies will probably freak a bit when they run across strips/straps/ladders/guts and all the other stuff they've never heard of, but people with at least a bit of experience are likely...
  8. BlueWaterSailor

    Option assignment question.

    The (only) right answer is "call your broker and get clear on their policy". Having said that, this thread is worth checking out:
  9. BlueWaterSailor

    Is this a red flag or white?

    He bought the stock and then sold the calls on it. A covered call.
  10. BlueWaterSailor

    Is this a red flag or white?

    You're basically playing the penny stock game. Extreme volatility, low liquidity, huge bid/ask spreads (meaning you're going to get a haircut on both ends of the round trip), and high chance of total or nearly total loss. A quick scan turns up about a dozen stocks in that range that have...
  11. BlueWaterSailor

    Here's the proof that Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) is WRONG

    Sure, but not a fixed value of labor. Smith and Say, etc. were pretty clear on the concept of value as something established between buyer and seller. But hey, at least old Karl came up with "capitalism" as a term... he just expected it to be a minor stage on the road to socialism. Wish I knew...
  12. BlueWaterSailor

    Here's the proof that Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) is WRONG

    I'm tellin ya, man - old Karl Marx had something there. I mean, if you feel like your labor is worth $100/hour, and you spend three hours making a nail, then by damn that nail is worth $300. Ain't no way to argue anything that solid, and the gubmint should oughta make everybody pay up! Now all...
  13. BlueWaterSailor

    Is this a red flag or white?

    ATM options for a $9 stock that's a month out will typically pay around 0.50 at an IV of ~50 and ~$1 at an IV of 100. A $3 call on one of these would be the biggest "guaranteed to crash in the next 30 seconds" flag I could think of...
  14. BlueWaterSailor

    Here's the proof that Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) is WRONG

    Hookers and blow, of course. The intermediate steps are utterly trivial and therefore left up to the student. Better watch out... he's going to make all the money in the world a few minutes after the next session opens, and then you'll be sorry!
  15. BlueWaterSailor

    Here's the proof that Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) is WRONG

    Oh, yawn. http://optionsoffice.ru/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Nassim-Taleb_Why-we-have-never-used-the-BSM-option-pricing-formula.pdf
  16. BlueWaterSailor

    dest's discord group--tickers, structuring and pnl

    Look at what's driving NQ these days. NVDA and ULTA are the runners up, but then there's the volume... AAPL: 84.5M NVDA: 25M ULTA: 1.5M If you want to bet against dest's forecast, you just go right ahead. I'll even take the other side of that bet. :)
  17. BlueWaterSailor

    Be careful today- could be a big reversal to the down

    With every retail and their granny leveraged out to the max and scrimping on breakfast to buy calls, that's an easy one. And when it comes, it'll be as rough as 40-grit sandpaper in place of Charmin. The only question is when.
  18. BlueWaterSailor

    Gavin Newsom: Oh Shit

    Whatchu mean??? You stick the pluggie thingie in, electricity comes out. You can't 'splain that! Politicians, dude. They ain't elected for their brains. I've used that video to clue several people in since you turned me onto it.
  19. BlueWaterSailor

    Gavin Newsom: Oh Shit

    At least he put the responsibility in the right place - "the State" has to sober up. Because there's this group of people called engineers that could have told them about a thing called "peak demand"... hell, the ones that were managing the Faida Canal 3000+ years ago could have told them all...
  20. BlueWaterSailor

    $0 option trading mega-thread: Brokers list.

    Whew. Glad to see those days are gone. Much as I'd have loved to catch the action on the trading floors in days of yore, the modern flexibility, availability, ease, and low cost of trading today are astounding and I greatly appreciate them. (I would be ecstatic to have my options fees be in the...
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