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I think there is a big misconception that trading is getting "harder". The groups at the forefront of technology will always be crushing the game. Edges change, you need to keep with the times. Put a decent programmer with finance knowledge back in the 90's and he would crush. Put a guy who...

You don't approximate brownian motion. It is a theory on how stocks move (geometric brownian motion to be exact). This motion is what is assumed when pricing options. If you think a stock will trend in one direction the OTM calls and puts will most likely be under priced (assuming no delta...

Well if you believe that stocks follow a brownian motion, then yes, volatility erodes away at the drift (directional) component.

hey badget, just something to keep in mind - spy gamma (short dated options) are probably the worst possible options to buy long term. It's crucial you have a well defined edge if you are going to be a net buyer of these options.

Thanks vanzandt but I am not to sure how I will scrape the earnings dates/times from this as there are alot of unwanted dates with the same 8-k heading. I just checked these guys out on Quandl, this is a ton of information for $29 but they do not have historical earnings dates from the looks of...

Does anyone have a good source for historical earnings dates? I need a minimum of 8 previous earnings dates (yahoo has this but the data is so bad I question why it's even there). I do not mind paying for access to a good API (but I do not want to pay the $1200 zacks is asking for. I'll go as...

LOL it sounds like your pretty into the game yourself!! I was thinking of just going long the stock, however, do you see any interesting spreads here? Maybe short SPX calls vs long EA calls?

I don't want to be mean, but this journal is more quantitive and it would be nice if we could keep it that way. I don't want to start attracting all the technicians. On another note if you expect VZ to breakout of a bullish wedge, you would expect vol to drop and hence an expensive straddle px...

We know there is going to be volatility around earnings. It moves about 7% around earnings (if I can remember correctly). Are you saying the implied volatility is cheap? If so, what do you think fair value is? I currently do not see how you are extracting alpha

Hey guys my cousin is a very serious gamer and he told me about a week ago EA games released Apex Legends. The game is already 5x more popular than Fortnite on certain metrics. Fortnite is starting to give away free stuff to get people to come back to Fortnite. I dont have great service right...

Could you please provide an explanation of what your talking about. This provides no evidence of anything.

@Corto have you thought about an otm asymmetric 132 call fly expiring in 7-14 days? From all that I have learned from des, that would be his first look for a directional assumption. IWM Feb 22 152/158/161 for 3.29 does not look like a bad idea.

I would love to hear your reasoning for the trade Neww.

Barely moved around earnings. Must have been a nice trade! Do you know of any company hardhearted in Green Bay Appleton WI that might be looking at buying this company? This area is suddenly showing some interest in the company. Data is in percentiles not actual views.

Hey guys, I think there is about to be a short squeeze in THS. Insiders have been picking up alot of shares the past month, skew is is really starting to favour the call side and short int ratio just hit 10. I hope this finds some of you before market close

Have you read his atticus and riskarb journals? I found those to be less cryptic and enjoyable reads. I think in his older age he's becoming more Shakespearean. Someone should start a thread where we break down his sentences.

No doubt! I took a stab at this on a much simpler scale (relative value trading SPX vs NDX Or SPX vs AAPL). It's all fun and games when both assets are near their strikes, once they start moving around the PnL's don't look so good anymore. I did a IBB/QQQ relative value trade, IBB drifted way...

Guys, he has posted over 1000 trades on this site. He has answered so many questions, why are we still posting 132 directional flies? @ironchef why do you keep downgrading yourself? I always here you say "us retail" or "I am so stupid". Take the time to learn the basics. I had 0 clue what...

http://www.nuclearphynance.com/User%20Files/2/Dispersion%20-%20A%20guide%20for%20the%20clueless%201.1.pdf Here's a paper that was written by a reputable NP member

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/inside-the-world-s-most-elite-and-secret-traders-club It's from May Last year, but I thought it was an interesting read.