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Dennis actually talked about a guy that he had in the Turtle Trading program who made a bunch of money using his method - and quit anyway. When asked why, he said "I know this method works; I just can't handle it emotionally." If that isn't the best demonstration of this ground truth in...

I don't have any simplistic, guaranteed solutions to offer, so I don't make this kind of claims in public. Although I do throw on a few cheap/free long-term ratio spreads when vol is way down; this provides some degree of protection despite the fact that I can't predict what my port delta will...

The fact that you're missing this key point is exactly the problem with stops. The claim here was that they "protect you from financial disaster" - i.e., an outlier scenario. The number of times when stops worked is completely irrelevant for the kind of protection that's being claimed: disaster...

Good luck suing Bitcoin Inc, the Ethereum Corporation, and the brokerage that provided the trading platform.

Since it doesn't work for 17.5 hours out of every trading day or at all on the weekends, even "better than none" is a dubious claim. If you were short any significant amount of Gateway when it jumped to almost 275x its previous value, or long Zynga before its 40% earnings drop, you'd still be...

The "My Dick Is So Huge" brigade is out in full force, I see. If you people actually had anything worth talking about, you would either 1) Take your own advice and shut the hell up about it - not a single word or even a hint - because somebody might track you down, shove an electrode up your...

Or if you do use them and the stock gaps overnight. Ooops. For every one of these simplistic hard-and-fast rules, there's a broad range of exceptions that'll empty your wallet specifically because you followed it. If protecting yourself from a crash while still making a good return was this...

Thank you. I was wondering if anyone in this thread actually knew the difference between data science and trivial analytics (e.g., back-testing.) I still have access to fairly chunky hardware from my days of working at Cloudera and Databricks, and I did a fair bit of EDA, diag, and modeling on...

Dude. You use terms like "contango" and "backwardation" without even blushing... and you wanna talk smack? Puh-lease. :p :finger: :D

Since those all measure the amount of change in the "one level up" functions, and those are all approaching zero as tenor -> 0... yeah, nah. :)

How about σιωπηρή μεταβλητότητα? :) I'm not sure why you'd say that it's "mostly IV, not theta". IV is what is implied by the price of the option with a given stock price, tenor, strike, etc., and it does not "decay"; it just varies based on them. Since most of those factors are fixed, the...

That's the good thing about a two-sided market; if you think it's "unfair" on one side, simply take the other side of the trade. But I suspect you'd complain about it being "unfair" when you lose there, too... :) Prices in the market are not "fair" or "unfair"; just like the color of the sky...

Something I ran across years ago; it's long but well worth a read. Written by a guy who lived through the crash, etc. and has a good take on surviving through the worst: https://when-shtf.blogspot.com/2010/12/surviving-argentinas-economic-collapse.html

As always, it depends. If you're opening an ATM spread at a debit that's about half the spread width, that's basically a 50/50 bet on direction by expiration. OTM spreads are going to vary a bit more, and lean harder into direction - but they'll balance that by paying more for a smaller risk if...

Doesn't matter where the underlying is trading. When you exercise your long, your stock will be assigned at a price 10 points below what you paid for it, so your total loss on it $10 less the initial credit per share. That's the point of defined-risk trades.

And you could make huge multiples of that by offering to share, say, 50% of all losses and gains - no monthly fee - with your subscribers. You'd have half the world signed up in the first month, and most of the remainder the following week. Entire governments would simply dump their treasuries...

I guess once you're in the business of unsubstantiated claims, it's hard to resist a few more. You know the opinions of "a few thousand" people without even asking them? Wow, quite the mind-reading act. What I said - if you actually read it - is 100% uncontroversial; there's nothing in there...

Not posting one leaves you in the same category as every other "pick service" - and there's a million of you out there, with the default case being fakers who'll show some pretty graphs and steal your money (if you were actually any good, you wouldn't need to bother with websites, customer...

A blotter of, say, the past year or five would probably work better than just a bare claim of your level of confidence in your picks. Assuming your confidence is actually based on returns, that is.