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  1. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    CCall is in. WDAY trading down to $210. So far looks like a big big winner. Edit** 208!! :)
  2. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    Long GOOS 67.5 Calls @ 3.86 CAD Long GOOS 68 Calls @ 3.92 CAD Edit* Long the 121 237.5/207.5/177.5 P FLY on WDAY for 15.60 risk
  3. TheBigShort

    Not a bad way to swing with options

    Your right, my apologize @Wheezooo I was reading some of @riskarb over the weekend. No it does not suggest to be long gamma. It suggests to find an area you can get a decent return in but always be on the look out for statistical/true arbs. This could be as simple as have your money in a...
  4. TheBigShort

    Not a bad way to swing with options

    @ironchef here is a quote from KS a while back. It's one of my favourite trading quotes of all time. I highly recommend you print it out and put it by your monitor for awhile. "Most of the time play tight to the vest, watch your risk closely and try to make enough to cover the overhead and live...
  5. TheBigShort

    Not a bad way to swing with options

    Are you for real? Anyone who has access to a PnL graph can see that they don't want to get pinned on expiration. Hey des, would you consider trading the implied distro to the terminal distro trading the implied/realized spread (trading a 1 month straddle without hedging)? Let's say we wanted to...
  6. TheBigShort

    Not a bad way to swing with options

    No one ever said to systematically sell premium. There is no doubt times when vol is richer than it should be. Of course there will be times you are wrong but on average, if you have a better model than the market, you will be a net winner. There are also structural reasons for why certain...
  7. TheBigShort

    Not a bad way to swing with options

    I find your posts a little misleading. 1. sure a choppy market will hurt you when you delta hedge short vol but if you sold vol at a high enough premium (accounted for the choppiness), you will still come out on top. 2. You can most definitely come up with a long vol strategy where the...
  8. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    I was unable to capitalize on a LULU earnings arb trade. Luckily, I got out of the trade today unharmed. I also took a hit from the KSS trade (thank god i bought the wings). A few good trades 2 days ago on TGT, ADI and a few others has my account back to all time highs.
  9. TheBigShort

    negative theta

    LOL! Your date is set to 2016!!! You never show any effort in your questions. I honestly don't know why people keep answering them.
  10. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    Numbers are out on NDSN. Stock trading down to $127 (just below our sweet spot). So far so good! I think management can pop this up a bit on Confrence call tomorrow morning. Company has a lot of new products they are excited to talk about.
  11. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    Vol seems to be quite expensive across the board. The most risk is in NDSN as the company has 1/3 of it's business in China. All other companies seem to be very well diversified. Slight directional bias on NDSN Short NDSN 105/125 135/155 Iron condor for 6.00 Cr. Short HD 175/190 192.5/207.5...
  12. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    It's a holiday in the arctic (Canada). You best believe a few trades are going on today! Maybe some of you guys can help me with the research (post what you find). I will post fills before 3:45 Candidates: NDSN TJX URBN KSS HD
  13. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    PLCE down $10. I was honestly predicting a $20 dollar drop.
  14. TheBigShort

    R and Python Unite!

    Hi everyone, I know there are a few Python Programmers here and a few R coders. Mid last year R Studio released a beta version of "Reticulate" which allows for integration between Python and R. The package has been released on CRAN and it is very exciting to say the least. Both programs at...
  15. TheBigShort

    Managing Deltas / Hedging Frequency

    Hi magic, have you thought about hedging with other risks? For example, if you think vega is expensive, can you buy "cheap" gamma some where? Also Systematically short vega to collect the risk premium is most definitely not the best way to treat your capital. IMO its best to short vega...
  16. TheBigShort

    GARCH

    Why not learn them? They were made by very smart people who I am sure you can learn a lot from. Each of them try and capture a slightly different feature of how vol moves. You are searching for the "Aha!" moment right? That moment might come from reading one line in the "OLIGARCH" paper...
  17. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    Since we last spoke. Tomorrow should be my biggest day if A holds these lows.
  18. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    My boss leaves @ 4 so I wont be able to place fills in real time but maybe we can still carry some general discussions. Long A 75/77.5 Strangle. Looks like a great winner. I was looking to just buy the puts but the vol was not to expensive and there was some large upside scenarios so I ended up...
  19. TheBigShort

    Is buying options a mugs game?

    This is actually not the case. Long dated calls are actually quite expensive. You can plot an RND function and you will see that as you go really far out, the probability implied by the options for an upside move are actually quite high. This is not for all underlying's and expiration's of...
  20. TheBigShort

    Is buying options a mugs game?

    I should rephrase and say 95% of retail. I can't speak for all 5%. But most of the successful option traders I have come across, look at options as a way to get exposure to different risks that are not possible in delta 1 space.
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