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Yup. The downside with trading being that almost all ideas one will have (particularly if they're not grounded in a particular trading experience/privately known market inefficiency) result in failed tests. So it makes sense to assume any particular idea will fail ahead of time and plan...

Won't bother opening link, because I am indeed convinced it is bullshit. Skewing the RR to achieve a high win percentage is a standard trick of this sort of people. Don't think any profitable trader is going to let themselves be excited due to the negatives that incurs, in addition.

1) Why do you think he's asking the question in the first place? Granted, it entirely depends on his definition of "intermediate trader". If it's solely because he saw someone claim they could do it, he most likely won't. But if he is able to get into that interval (on his account, not full net...

I've heard of these reliable CFD platforms offering 1000x. Just requires 0.1% move in underlying to meet your monthly target. ;)

Hehehehe :D

I don't do day trading anymore (which I never succeeded at). If you're fine with fast head rounding for weighted average of three different accounts over last 13 months: 180% up with 30% DD (and I was out at the large DD until November...). Yeah, not worth it because I could have parked my money...

Jokes aside, the distinction between account returns versus returns on total net worth/capital is important.

I mean, either he already knows he can come close to that figure or it's a pipe dream. For the sake of a productive discussion most replies (including mine) assume the former. The reality in aggregate for day traders is certainly as bleak as those stats hint, but keep in mind the statistics for...

1) trading involves a good portion of randomness/variance due to its nature unless you have a super high Sharpe ratio/strong clean alpha (not you - some HFT or statarb for instance). 2) stopping when you reach a target (but not having a maximum loss) skews win ratio in your favor but limits your...

You could say it's how large of a relative impact a certain amount of money has on the share price, but it's not the whole story. Investors/traders in larger cap companies tend to be more informed, actually caring about current and forward yields, etc. Doubling profit is way harder than...

I think his timing is (was?) decent actually; there are hardly any surviving TSLA bears left, and there is good downside momentum now. Of course, being a TSLA bear historically speaking is bad for your [account's] health.

Viability of an active strategy aside, the primary thing that crosses my mind is that your kids will do what they will do. Yeah their perspective is unrealistic (perpetual consistent income from market) but expecting them to actively manage a strategy that they didn't build themselves is...

Don't disagree, the post-WW1 socioeconomic environment in Germany was fertile ground for extremism on both the right and the left. My point was simply to say that "French are cowards" or similar is ludicrous though. They failed to prepare for and subsequently lost WW2 due to an incompetent high...

Same with the tech companies I'm consulting for. My interpretation is the delays in responses and other mental barriers to interacting fully naturally in remote calls is the source of drag on innovativeness. Some tech companies do just fine being remote only though so not sure what the...

Absolutely, but you can't use 'seemingly' wisdom like that for much. The time you spend outside of the market once you reach your ambiguous threshold for 'mass speculation' may well cause you to underperform.

The US would have "won" (I put it in quotation marks because it was never achieving much but human suffering) if it had stayed in just a bit longer. The last major NVA offensive basically used up their remaining reserves. Mistakes were also made far earlier that if avoided would have let the US...

Don't know. I do know it's a joke here in Sweden among uninformed and it's prevalent on the Internet.

It's an unfair stereotype, admittedly, grounded in most foreigners having only a very high level idea of the western front in WW2 ("the French surrendered"), whereas if you look at the details individual French soldiers fought bravely in a desperate situation, e.g. enabling allied withdrawal at...

I'm not the guy to advise you on the math of this, but people analyze correlations within their portfolios quite seriously for precisely this reason. Your algo may well be picking a subset of 70 S&P500 companies that are more correlated than the index average. I assume you have already thought...

Agreed, but I do think it highlights that in the real endgame (true bear) ARKK may well do a 90%+ DD. Putting a stop at 50% draw down might be wise. :D