Search results

Yeah clearly the leading explanatory variable of 2022 stock market returns.

Actually, there is a clear market for long term predictions among big institutions. HFT has liquidity capacity constraints. They would all love to just have to predict the next millisecond or even minute if it was all they had to do.

The oil price prediction is not entirely nuts and I suspect he put it in there to lend the more outlandish claims some life support. Elon Musk for president by 2024 (and somehow US civil war at the same time), as well as Poland invading Ukraine are fairly "funny" ideas in the most negative...

Everything bad that could happen to crude happened since May. So you had JPM talking about 'stratospheric' $400 crude when it was at around $110 and we instead got Citi's (then out of consensus) $70 call playing out. The reasons JPM talked about $400 and almost everyone else were bullish as well...

Although it's a bit vague it sounds like you are asking about overnight gaps. Market participants don't bid/ask at yesterday's price when markets open today (generalizes whether we are talking RTH or the gap between afterhours and premarket). The open price will factor in anything that happened...

You can only really plan for such events ahead of time. Quite often there is a gap accompanying these types of moves which by definition means you can't get out. In your toolbox to cap risk: Position sizing, hedging by OTM calls, or buying puts instead of shorting outright, or some combination...

That is true. Her funds' universe is hot tech stocks. And that universe has tanked to the extent that if you were invested in the sector this year, you're almost certainly underwater YTD. That said, she maybe was not as brilliant when that universe soared as she was ascribed. It's the job of...

I assume you've seen the footage. "Summary execution" my ass, she was part of the people assaulting the building, many of whom were armed. Her death is a tragedy but it is not like it was unexpected that some defender would break under the pressure.

Trump the "businessman", lulz.

Same for me. I like Overnight but his noise to signal ratio is super high. I just got tired scrolling past lotsa "stuff" not pertaining to thread. I unblock sometimes to see if he cut down on the spam.

/thread, any other replies are superfluous.

True. In general, there was the short squeeze aspect of the craze in those years, but massive speculation in call options contributed even more (leading to delta hedging market makers driving prices upwards in a feedback loop/"weaponized gamma"). The article is kind of late to the party, long...

Typical ZH article.

Nice topic, trance has been my almost lifelong interest. PvDs "Nothing but you" is of course classic remix material, and liking Runaway as well. Some of my own favorites: Photon Project Airbase Gouryella Alphazone

Depends on the the win rate and expectancy, as well as the trade frequency. I am going to assume exponential bet sizing below: If you're concluding 1 trade/day or more on a reasonably profitable strategy there's absolutely no need to risk more than 1% of your account to grow the account. If...

I know it can't mathematically go to zero [some kind of leverage Black swan aside], but practically speaking 100% is a good approximation for the kind of losses that can be incurred. For most people a 90% loss and a 100% loss are functionally the same in terms of severity. Exception if you're a...

The things you can do with too much easy money on your hands...

The fact TQQQ is already in a ~75% DD from peak should tell you all you need to know about what it can do to your money. You have to treat it as a bet with 100% downside (position sizing via Kelly criterion et al). Of course, the attraction is a potential for asymmetric upside if you know when...

Unless they were complete idiots and put close to 100% of their NW on there they will be fine I guess. Not that it makes the situation any more palatable.

Better than Trump for sure