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  1. globalarbtrader

    Granularity of the Bid/Ask spread relative to STD/ATR

    It does, but the question is whether the return is still there after costs, so you need to know the costs. Also for many phenomenon (eg trend following) the pre-cost returns are the same across different instruments, regardless of costs. Anyway I think it's important to know costs. At some...
  2. globalarbtrader

    Granularity of the Bid/Ask spread relative to STD/ATR

    (bid-ask + commission) / vol = standardised measure of costs. Low costs == good. GAT
  3. globalarbtrader

    Scalping

    At some level you can use words to mean what you like. But I just googled scalping, and none of the top dozen or so links agree with you. This suggests you are in a minority with this opinion. GAT
  4. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    I wrote a post on my own system: http://qoppac.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/the-worlds-simplest-execution-algorithim.html For (4) this might be interesting http://qoppac.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/systems-building-checks-and-balances.html GAT
  5. globalarbtrader

    Are Standard Deviation based stops, one of the best stops?

    Sorry I don't understand. Can you explain? GAT
  6. globalarbtrader

    Are Standard Deviation based stops, one of the best stops?

    In those circumstances (falling volatilty) you should reduce your stop, and increase your position size to reflect the lower risk. When vol rises you should increase your stop and reduce your position size. I note in passing that this would also be a problem with ATR or any stop based on...
  7. globalarbtrader

    You have to die before becoming a successful trader

    Actually my trading is systematic and automated: entirely mechanical and requires no thought whatsoever. Despite all this I still make plenty of money out of it. I reserve my creative abilities for posting sarcastic posts on this forum. GAT
  8. globalarbtrader

    You have to die before becoming a successful trader

    There is nothing I can add to this quote that will make it funnier. GAT
  9. globalarbtrader

    Are Standard Deviation based stops, one of the best stops?

    I don't think you should backtest the optimimum stop for the reasons I've already said. GAT
  10. globalarbtrader

    Are Standard Deviation based stops, one of the best stops?

    Stops should be based on risk. They are a way of managing risk. If you're basing them on technical levels then they're not a stop, they're something else. If I used explicit stops I'd use SD based stops. You have to have some model of risk. A model is a simplified form of the world. You can...
  11. globalarbtrader

    Oh no, not another python backtester...

    Yes since around January 2014 these are actual roll dates. They are based on a fixed time before the expiry date, with adjustments to those dates when there isn't a sychronous price between the current and new contracts. Yes GAT
  12. globalarbtrader

    What is the optimal position sizing for this long only stock portfolio?

    Making a lot of assumptions: 27% individual stock standard deviation, 5% arithmetic return on all stocks (i.e. no skill in stock picking), 0.85 correlation. The latter figure is most important; a higher correlation will reduce the benefit of diversification. These are then plugged into the...
  13. globalarbtrader

    What is the optimal position sizing for this long only stock portfolio?

    Depends on what you are worried about. If you are trying to minimise tracking error then you'd choose the largest market cap stocks in each sector. If you are trying to maximise return you'd probably use some factors, eg value, momentum ... GAT
  14. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    Slippage is the difference between the mid price and what I actually pay / get. Assuming the price was 100 - 102 and a thick order book with plenty of volume: So on a buy I'd pay the offer 102 and have slippage of offer - mid 1 point If the price then moves to 119-121 If I then sold I'd get...
  15. globalarbtrader

    What is the optimal position sizing for this long only stock portfolio?

    You probably won't agree with me but I've written up my rebuttal: http://qoppac.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/can-you-eat-geometric-returns.html Thanks again for showing me the paper. Was interesting and useful. GAT
  16. globalarbtrader

    What is the optimal position sizing for this long only stock portfolio?

    I have the opposite experience; for over a decade working in finance I never looked at geometric mean, because we were working in target risk space with leverage, all our backtests had the same expected risk so we only looked at arithmetic means. I only started looking at geo-means a couple of...
  17. globalarbtrader

    What is the optimal position sizing for this long only stock portfolio?

    I don't agree with that conclusion but I will read it carefully and post a rebuttal
  18. globalarbtrader

    What is the optimal position sizing for this long only stock portfolio?

    If you are using the correct measure of geometric returns, which I was careful to specify, then diversification improves them. This improvement is much larger than the benefits from rebalancing, which are relatively modest. GAT
  19. globalarbtrader

    What is the optimal position sizing for this long only stock portfolio?

    You are trying to work out the best compromise between two opposing effects: Diversification, which says the more stocks the better. Given enough money you should own the entire S&P 500 A target return over benchmark, which will require more a concentrated portfolio to achieve. It's...
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