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  1. globalarbtrader

    hypothesis driven vs ad hoc

    No Logic plus evidence. Both required. Every time. GAT
  2. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    Several new HMW over last few days. Total profits to date 146%, for the tax year +37%. GAT
  3. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    Did that stuff in my last job, not any more. GAT
  4. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    It's a UK insurance scheme (although I use IB, it's via the UK regulated arm) equivalent to FDIC, but only covers up to £85k GAT
  5. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    Remember net with the hedge which I also closed it's close to flat, probably small up. GAT
  6. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    With todays further falls, I had the opportunity to do some tidying up and tax optimisation. As many of you know, I originally funded my account with stocks rather than cash, to avoid paying the CGT bill. The largest position was a long in the IDVY European dividend ETF. To hedge this, and...
  7. globalarbtrader

    Developing "Spartan"

    Love this comment. "Why offer just one confusing API, when we can offer two and make it twice as confusing?" GAT
  8. globalarbtrader

    12 months honest performance

    No, just books. I can understand your skepticism, but it's a real number. Most people on ET find me to be an honest chap... GAT
  9. globalarbtrader

    12 months honest performance

    Somewhere around 32% (as of 4:22 GMT today at least) GAT
  10. globalarbtrader

    How to buy the dip

    How is easy. When... harder. GAT
  11. globalarbtrader

    Which volatility measure for setting stops ?

    https://qoppac.blogspot.com/2020/02/what-is-right-way-to-set-stop-losses.html GAT
  12. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    The speed of this turnaround has been too quick for trend following to get out of the lift doors before they closed. Vol scaling will reduce the damage, and a diversified set of futures will allow you to make some money back. But I agree, it's very small beer compared to the losses in my long...
  13. globalarbtrader

    % who say people are rich because

    .... and if you're not being paid for it, is it still work? GAT
  14. globalarbtrader

    % who say people are rich because

    It was 7.30am. That was when I was in sell side trading, which I did for less than 2 years. As I said earlier in this thread I didn't enjoy working that hard and so I quit (there were other reasons!). Even then I wasn't doing the 70+ hours a week that @southall defines as hard work, more like 50...
  15. globalarbtrader

    Fully automated futures trading

    Hmmm. My guess is that thresholding resulted in one or more position only being zero in certain periods therefore killing the correlation matrix of returns. An easy fix would be to make sure the p&l calculation for instrument weights looks at pre thresholded positions (which to be honest I...
  16. globalarbtrader

    Cboe, LME may shut down trading pits temporarily

    Only one of these things can be true GAT
  17. globalarbtrader

    % who say people are rich because

    Define hard work. Honestly, the only time in my life we're I've worked harder than I've had to is since I 'retired'. I could just sit around watching TV, but instead I'm doing stuff that from the outside looks like work (although a lot of it doesn't produce any income) but which I happen to...
  18. globalarbtrader

    % who say people are rich because

    This is my personal experience of my own life, so with respect, you have absolutely no idea whether it's complete nonsense or not. I don't think we've ever met. And more generally, the rate of social mobility in the US is lower than in nearly every other developed country and has been falling...
  19. globalarbtrader

    % who say people are rich because

    Also modest :-) I think a combination of advantages and dumb luck are enough to be rich, where it's my personal definition of rich: not needing to work ever again (so probably low to mid 7 figure net worth in liquid assets). I'm basing this on the fact that I've never worked harder than I have...
  20. globalarbtrader

    % who say people are rich because

    Should be an option for dumb luck. My own success is down to: 40% Advantages 60% Dumb luck 0% hard work GAT
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