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Are "absorption/exhaustion" terms that traders like to use to explain stalled price action? Couldn't someone without bookmap make the same conclusion just using price action?

what's "right before close" mean? 10-15min? what's the min time needed before that option gets accepted?

you think lottery have better odds than these kinds of option plays?

Averaging down plays well with people's recency bias. They never seem to remember the 1 or 2 times they get fucked...

I also think averaging down is no good. I havent found any way to make averaging down work for the long run. You're basically always committed to a direction or you always take the most loss if you ever decide to cut it. What i found that works is stop and reverse.

Using stop loss reduced your edge significantly. It's basically a double entry approach, where each (entry and stop loss level) reduces your overall probability

if spx just ranges here in the next 5-7 years that would be good.

Whats your AUM now?

Well on the reverse it would be market stop orders. But what you're saying is correct, I can only assume the orders are filled within 1 sec. Which means calculating to make sure the full pre determined lot to fully execute would be better approach.

Simple fix was adding the sleep function (1 sec) before it calculates and sets the target, so that it waits for all the lots to be executed properly. This worked in backtest, just have to make sure it works in live. Will continue to monitor live and ready to jump in if it doesn't work! if(...

What's the net result of the probability of you choosing the right direction and entry point?

What's the opportunity cost of waiting for a pullback (i.e loss profit potential). It's 2 sided equation here. Probablity of determining trade direction x probability of correct entry x probability of stop placement x probability of target...

good luck. Let us know when you actually withdrawn profits > the cost of the fees.

Do you average in with covered puts when stock dips? Or is this a one time purchase?

On a 10k account it would retur about 60% based on 1 contract without compounding. Maybe this is the approach I should take. There's no way to eliminate risk of ruin completely. Even with a pre determined stop, you can reach pretty steep drawdown on a string of losing consecutive hits.

If I go back to my scalping method, it's an all out approach. Meaning all in for minimal profit or b/e or the day. Just based on backtests, I would have about 97-98% profitable days. Even though I haven't seen catastrophic losses in the backtests (yes zero loss), I used the close calls as the...

I don't think I can mentally take a DD this big from this strategy. I thought 50% is the worst I could experience, but backtesting it during fall/winter months show bigger dd. I still make more money this method, but It's just way too risky

Still working through the drawdown earlier. Topped off the accoutn to 10k jsut so i can have enough margin to handle the reverses. So I have a b/e sequence function thats programmed into this algo. But one thing I found out about programming a stop and reverse with b/e function into futures is...

I can't get my mind around some people being that insane to make things up online. I rather believe and preserve my own sanity and faith in humanity

those stop and reverse with bigger size is pretty unoriginal...