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Since we reversed off Friday's Close I'm now thinking we test the lows and possibly sell off from there?

Reversed strongly off Friday's Close. Potential for a sell-off from here...

Care to give the full story?

Slightly dependent on the open - my data suggests a (solid) up day today (Monday). I'd love a market crash now. Too many 'newly rich' in my social circle who thinks they're market geniuses after this bull market.

Slightly dependent on the open - my data suggests a solid up day today (Monday).

Are you assuming that these sellers transacting at the bid were all entering the market and not liquidating existing positions? Are you assuming that all these sellers transacting at the bid were day traders and need to exit on adverse price movement on that day?

In theory, it sounds great. In practice, I haven't yet found any use for it. Often, you'll see high volume transacted at the offer and 'nothing' happens. So, there was strong buying interest, but also strong supply. Other times, the opposite happens. There is strong buying interest and short...

For ES, I have 36 out of the last 1439 days with the high and low inside the first hour (09:30-10:30). The last one being a month ago on the 5th of September. :)

Won't happen.

Curious... What would be an obvious reason?

Maybe this is giving away too much, but what if you knew that: - The average daily range is X amount of points. - The opening range (1st 90 minutes) contain the entire daily range only 7 % of the time - After 90 minutes we're well below the daily average range Can this be used as a starting...

I think there are some pretty good books there, but mostly for inspiration, learning what NOT to do and how markets work (Trading & Exchanges). At best, these books are good for getting STARTED. At worst, they'll confuse the hell out of you and lead you in the wrong direction as they're written...

I only look at RTH (cash open/close) data. That specific day was the 25th of July. You can look it up... :) Interesting questions. If you are to trade the ETH session, it's probably wise to answer them.

Very nice moves lately. It seems like the last 7 sessions all have had a nice sell-off in the afternoon.

The latest record in my data set (currently not updated) has a daily range of 31,25 points and the 1st 90 minutes being 7,75 points. Thus, to answer your question for that single day, the daily range is 31,25/7,75 = 4 times bigger than the 1st 90 minutes. If I repeat the same arithmetic for my...

Most certainly not. A good trader needs to plan for and anticipate multiple scenarios on any given day. Although we trade probabilities this means that the unlikely can and will happen. I still need to close the gap between my statistical predictions and my intuition and experience as in how...

And if my call for today is correct - this is one of those 7% days... :) EDIT 28 minutes later: 2nd scenario being a move towards 2930.

Not exactly what you're asking, but for the ES, the 1st 90 minutes capture the entire daily range only about 7% of the time in the last 5 years or so.

How do you know this? Please enlighten the rest of us.

Do you have detailed knowledge of this specific trade?